Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook in Q4 2025: Will the ‘Uptober’ Effect Still Be Relevant?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Entering the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is often considered an exciting period for market participants. However, after experiencing a more than 10% drop from its record high of $124,000, analysts from 10x Research caution that the factors driving price gains are generally weaker this year. The big question is, will the usual ‘Uptober’ rally stick?

Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ Rally: Is it Still Relevant?

October is usually the strongest month for Bitcoin (BTC), often dictating the direction of a bullish market in the fourth quarter. Historically, in 12 occasions, 10 of them resulted in gains with an average price surge of 21%. However, as revealed by 10x Research, when market expectations are uniform, the results are often the opposite.

This year, the factors that usually support price increases in October are not as strong as in previous years, leaving greater opportunities for price fluctuations. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a critical phase, where technical pressure is starting to mount.

Despite a 3% drop this week, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be struggling to break through resistance at $115,000. Analysts predict that the beginning of the fourth quarter could witness price movements of up to $20,000, both upwards and downwards.

Also read: Tom Lee’s Prediction: Ethereum (ETH) Could Reach $12,000 by the End of the Year!

On-Chain Data Adds to Uncertainty

Not only from charts and trading desks, on-chain data also shows warning signs. 10x Research notes that the options market shows that traders are betting against the possibility of a strong breakout, which could add to volatility if the market moves beyond expectations.

According to CryptoQuant, whales have sold as much as 147,000 BTC in the past one month, which increases selling pressure. This data adds complexity to the current Bitcoin (BTC) market analysis. Analysts have to pay attention not only to technical indicators but also to the dynamics taking place on the blockchain to predict the next direction more accurately.

Read also: Bitcoin and Altcoins at Critical Crossroads, Will the Crypto Market Recover?

Critical Levels of Bitcoin to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $113,060, with very minimal movement in the last 24 hours. The critical support level that analysts are watching is $109,898. If the price stays above this level, there is still hope for a bull market. However, if the price drops towards $105,000, it could trigger a bigger drop.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin (BTC) manages to break above $115,000, it could pave the way for a test run to the $120,000 level. Market participants should be very aware of the price movements around these critical levels to make informed investment decisions.

Conclusion

With various factors at play, including on-chain conditions and the options market, the chances for a big rally in the fourth quarter seem slimmer. Investors and traders should prepare themselves for possible high volatility and closely monitor critical levels that could determine the next direction of the Bitcoin (BTC) market.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Coinpedia. Bitcoin Q4 2025 Forecast: BTC Could Move to $20k Amid Weak Uptober Rally. Accessed on September 27, 2025
• Featured Image: Generated by AI