The Biggest Crypto Bull Run Could Happen as Early as 2026? Here are 5 Reasons!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Experts are increasingly signaling that there could be a bull run in the crypto market in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, triggered by a combination of macroeconomic factors.

Analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could soar to a range between $300,000 and $600,000 if these triggering factors actually occur. The combination of five key trends creates what analysts describe as a “perfect storm” for digital assets.

1. Fed’s Balance Sheet Tightening Halt Relieves Pressure

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which has been sucking up liquidity throughout 2025, was recently halted.

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Historically, this cessation of liquidity siphoning is considered a positive signal for risky assets. Data from previous cycles shows that Bitcoin can rise up to 40% when central banks stop shrinking their balance sheets.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that early 2026 could be the moment when the market starts to feel the impact of the Fed’s discontinuation of the QT policy.

2. Interest Rate Cut Potentially Back

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, and both their comments and Goldman Sachs’ projections suggest that another rate cut could come in 2026, with the potential for rates to fall to the 3-3.25% range.

Lower interest rates usually increase liquidity and encourage interest in speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

3. Short-Term Liquidity Improves

Increased purchases of short-termTreasury bills or other support at the short end of the yield curve could ease funding pressures and lower short-term interest rates. The Fed said it would begin technical purchases of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity.

“[These purchases] are solely for the purpose of maintaining an adequate supply of reserves over time, thereby supporting effective control of the policy rate… this issue is separate from and does not affect the stance of monetary policy,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed often intervenes in the short-term funding market when there is a liquidity imbalance. This imbalance was seen in the overnight repo market, where banks borrowed cash against government bonds(Treasuries).

Recently, several indicators point to increased short-term funding pressures, including:

• Money market funds that hold high levels of cash,
• Shrinking T-bill issuance due to changes in the US Treasury’s lending strategy, and
• Increased seasonal demand for liquidity.

In response, the Fed initiated a controlled T-bill purchase plan to prevent short-term interest rates from deviating from the benchmark interest rate target(Federal Funds Rate). T-bills are government bonds with the shortest maturity, usually a few weeks to a year.

While not part of a classic quantitative easing(QE) policy, this move could still be an important liquidity boost for the crypto market.

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For Q1 2026, the impact on risky assets such as crypto and stocks is expected to be positive, albeit moderate, due to the Fed’s policy shift towards stabilization or gradual liquidity expansion.

4. Political Incentives Favor Stability

With the US midterm elections scheduled to take place in November 2026, policymakers are expected to favor market stability over disruption.

This environment reduces the risk of sudden regulatory shocks and increases investor confidence in risky assets.

“If the US stock market falters before the midterm elections, the current administration will be blamed – therefore they will do everything possible to keep the market stable, including stocks and crypto,” writes macro researcher, Thorsten Froehlich.

5. Labor Market “Paradox”

Weak labor market data – such as slowing job growth or mild layoffs – often triggers a dovish response from the Federal Reserve.

Weaker labor market conditions increase pressure on the Fed to ease its monetary policy. This easing policy ultimately adds liquidity to the market and creates more favorable conditions for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Expert Views Point to Strong Bullish Sentiment

Industry observers are starting to align with an optimistic macro outlook. Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, predicts the crypto market will bounce back in February and March 2026, as a combination of positive macro indicators emerge.

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“We will see a market revival in the first quarter of 2026. February and March will again be a bull market period, based on a combination of macro indicators,” Binance reported quoting Alice Liu.

Some analysts are even more optimistic. Crypto commentator Vibes predicts Bitcoin prices could reach $300,000 to $600,000 by Q1 2026. This reflects extreme bullish sentiment amid improving liquidity and easing macro conditions.

Currently, market participation remains sluggish. Bitcoin’s open interest has decreased, reflecting the cautious attitude of traders.

However, if these positive macroeconomic winds do materialize, the consolidation phase could quickly turn into a major surge – paving the way for a historic start to 2026 for the crypto market.

FAQ

What is quantitative tightening by the Fed?

Quantitative tightening by the Fed is the process of reducing liquidity in the market by selling financial assets held by the central bank.

How do interest rates affect the crypto market?

Lower interest rates tend to increase liquidity and drive interest in speculative assets, including crypto, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.

When are the US midterm elections scheduled and why do they matter?

The US midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026. This is important as policymakers tend to favor market stability to secure political support.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Q1 2026 Crypto Bull Run Prediction. Accessed on December 19, 2025