Bitcoin 4 Years from Death: Research Reveals Bear Market and Gradual Decline

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC), as the most dominant cryptocurrency, is still following its four-year cycle despite market dynamics featuring a gradual downward phase, according to the latest market research. This cycle, historically associated with halving events, is not yet “dead” but is showing modifications to its structure amid the dominance of institutional investors and shifting capital flows in the global cryptocurrency market.

1. What is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle comes from the halving mechanism-reducing theblock reward every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. This event lowers the supply of new Bitcoin significantly, creating the supply pressure that classical theory says triggers a bull market.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin price often experienced large rallies after halving, followed by deep vertical corrections. However, recent research has shown a difference in this pattern, where the bull and bear phases no longer show the same extreme movements as in previous cycles.

Also Read: 5 Realistic Ways to Earn 2 Million in a Day, Here’s the Secret!

2. Gradual Decline, Not a Sharp Crash

According to research, Bitcoin is entering a more gradual bear market period after the last post-halving rally. Instead of the usual sharp drop, prices are showing a slower correction, reflecting more mature market movements and less sensitivity to extreme volatility.

The main factor behind this pattern is the changing market structure: increased participation of institutional investors, the growth of products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the dominance of large capitals that tend to hold down prices. When institutions are involved, buying and selling is usually more structured and less driven by retail speculation.

3. Institutional Investor Dominance and Its Impact

The presence of institutional capital through products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs has changed the market dynamics. These products facilitate large capital flows as they offer a more organized and convenient way for institutions to place capital in Bitcoin than traditional mechanisms.

These capital flows affect not only the price, but also volatility patterns. Institutional investors tend to have a longer time horizon, reducing sharp selling pressures and slowing down the traditional cycles that have been observed in Bitcoin, especially compared to past periods of retail trader dominance.

4. Role of Macro and Liquidity Conditions

In addition to internal market changes, macro factors such as global liquidity conditions and monetary policy also affect the Bitcoin cycle. When liquidity decreases or interest rates are high, risky assets like Bitcoin tend to come under pressure. But as global interest rates decrease and capital flows increase, Bitcoin continues to receive support.

This suggests that Bitcoin’s current cycle is more influenced by macroeconomic factors than just the traditional halving mechanism, marking a new era in the crypto market.

5. Bitcoin Cycle Outlook 2026

While there are suggestions that the four-year cycle may change or even expand, recent research suggests that it is not dead. The cycle still serves as a framework for long-term price understanding, it’s just that the price dynamics are more moderate.

Investors and market watchers will still be monitoring Bitcoin (BTC) ahead of a potential next bull phase, especially if global liquidity conditions improve and retail participation picks up again. The combination of old fundamentals and new structural factors will continue to influence how this cycle develops going forward.

Also Read: 10 Ways to Make Money from Games Quickly but Realistically (Online & Mobile)

Follow us on Google News to get the latest information about crypto and blockchain technology. Check Bitcoin price today, Solana price today, Pepe coin and other crypto asset prices through Pintu Market.

Enjoy an easy and secure crypto trading experience by downloading Pintu crypto app via Google Play Store or App Store now. Also, get a web trading experience with various advanced trading tools such as pro charting, various types of order types, and portfolio tracker only at Pintu Pro.

*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Bitcoin News. Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Isn’t Dead – Research Reveals Bear, Gradual Decline Ahead. Accessed January 30, 2026.