Bitcoin Braces for Volatility as 4 Key US Economic Reports Come Into Focus

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) started the week trading at around $68,000, or around Rp1,149,064,000, amid the shadow of four high-impact US economic data releases that could potentially change market expectations for interest rate cuts. This could also affect market participants’ risk appetite in the crypto sector.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at level 8, which indicates the market is still in the extreme fear phase. In addition, a number of Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to deliver statements throughout this week, adding to the potential volatility in the market.

Flash PMI to determine market direction on Tuesday

Tuesday’s release of S&P Global’s preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be the earliest snapshot of US economic activity during March.

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The services sector data reflects the largest portion of the US economy. If the results are stronger than expected, the market may judge that the chances of a Fed rate cut will be delayed, putting pressure on risky assets, including BTC.

Meanwhile, if the manufacturing PMI falls below the 50 level, it signals contraction. This situation may encourage market participants to take a more defensive stance, both in the stock and crypto markets.

AlphaBTC analysts noted that the Flash Manufacturing PMI is an early indicator of factory activity in March, where a reading below 50 signals contraction and could pressure cyclical stocks.

On the other hand, the Flash Services PMI reflects the largest part of the US economy; a strong result can support growth optimism, but at the same time potentially delay interest rate cuts.

Unemployment Claims in the Spotlight

The Initial Jobless Claims report released on Thursday is still the fastest and most relevant labor market indicator to watch. This data comes after the jobless claims figure for the week ending March 4 was recorded at 205,000, lower than market expectations at 215,000.

Based on a Trading Economics survey, economists expect this time’s jobless claims figure to be at 211,000. If the number of claims increases, it could reinforce the view that the Fed has room to start easing its monetary policy sooner, which historically tends to be a positive sentiment for Bitcoin.

Read also: Bitcoin Holds at $70,000 as Retail Demand Shows Signs of Weakness

Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it will further confirm the narrative of high interest rates lasting longer. This sentiment has been one of the factors that have pressured digital assets throughout the first quarter of 2026.

Inflation Data Closes the Trading Week

On Friday, the market will be watching two important releases at once, namely the final University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index data and the Inflation Expectations component.

Both are crucial week enders. However, rising inflation expectations are expected to have a more negative impact, given that this indicator is one of the important references for the Fed in determining the direction of its monetary policy.

On the other hand, US crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday is also an additional factor worth noting. A large drop in inventories generally pushes up oil prices, which can then magnify market concerns over inflation more broadly.

With tensions in the Middle East still high and energy markets remaining sensitive, this data release has an increasing weight on market movements.

Throughout March, BTC moved within a range of $62,000 to $76,000, or approximately Rp1,047,676,000 to Rp1,284,248,000. Whether this week’s four key economic data will push BTC to break new levels or instead experience a deeper correction will likely be determined by how much they alter market expectations of the Fed’s policy easing timeline.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. 4 US Economic Events That Could Shake Bitcoin This Week. Accessed on March 25, 2026