3 Market Signals for April 2026: Bitcoin still vulnerable or ready for bull run?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) is still not showing classic signals of the end of the bear market even though the price is holding at around US$69,500 or around Rp1,181,840,150 at an exchange rate of Rp16,997 per dollar. The latest analysis says three important indicators that usually appear before a bull run have not been triggered. This condition makes the crypto and cryptocurrency market still in a transitional phase.

1. Bitcoin Price Still Below Cost New Investor Base

The first signal is Bitcoin breaking through the short-term holders (STH) cost basis. This level is currently at around US$81,000. If converted, the value is around Rp1,376,757,000.

The price of BTC is still far below that area. This means that new investors are still experiencing unrealized losses. This condition usually occurs when the bear market phase has not yet been completed.

Also Read: 5 Ways to Invest in Oil: Starting from Rp11,000, Can You Do It Through Crypto?

2. No Breakout Above Key Levels Yet

In previous cycles, Bitcoin usually climbed back above the STH cost basis. After that, new demand starts to enter the market. This phase marks the beginning of a bull run.

However, BTC is currently nowhere near US$81,000. The gap is still more than 14%. This shows that the bullish momentum is not yet strong.

3. Investor’s Cost Basis Still Falling

The third indicator is the change in trend of the STH cost basis. At the end of a bear market, this level usually reverses upwards. This signals that investors are starting to buy at higher prices.

Currently, the cost basis is still falling every day. This means that accumulation occurs at lower prices. This pattern is identical to the bearish end phase.

What it Means for Crypto Investors

Bitcoin (BTC) is still in the phase of waiting for confirmation. As long as it has not broken Rp1.37 billion, the bull run is not yet valid. Crypto investors usually wait for such technical signals.

But this condition also opens up accumulation opportunities. Many previous cycles started from this phase. You need to monitor the movement of cryptocurrencies in the next few weeks.

Read More: 3 Ethereum Signals: Could It Break Rp40 Million or Fall Again?

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Keshav Verma / NewsBTC. These 3 Signals Mark Bear Market Exits-Bitcoin Has Yet To Trigger Them. Accessed April 8, 2026.