Top 5 Crypto Industry Predictions for 2026 According to Gemini Executives

Jakarta, Pintu News – The crypto market is expected to enter a new structural phase in 2026, as a major shift from the old narrative towards a more institutional and macro approach. This was stated by Patrick Liou, Director of Institutional at Gemini, who believes that the dynamics of cryptocurrency will no longer be determined by speculative cycles alone.

In his five key predictions, Liou emphasizes the role of regulations, institutions, and even countries as factors in determining the direction of the market. This view reinforces the idea that 2026 could be an important turning point for the global crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin’s Quadrennial Cycle Considered Over

Liou thinks that Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle pattern is starting to lose its relevance. If Bitcoin closes 2026 in the red, the classic halving-based narrative will collapse. In contrast to previous cycles characterized by 75-90% corrections, Bitcoin’s current decline is relatively more limited.

This reflects a more mature market structure. ETF flows, derivatives market depth, and institutional custody services are considered capable of absorbing supply shocks. Bitcoin is now treated more as a macro asset influenced by global liquidity rather than a cyclical calendar.

Bipartisan Crypto Support Ahead of 2026 US Elections

The second prediction highlights the growing bipartisan support for crypto ahead of the 2026 United States midterm elections. While Republicans were first to court crypto voters, Democrats are starting to show more active engagement. Market regulation is becoming an increasingly relevant campaign issue.

Also read: Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks 4-Year Cycle for the First Time in 14 Years!

Discussions on market structure bills such as the CLARITY Act continue through cross-party negotiations. Some analysts predict a breakthrough in the Senate as early as 2026. Key states such as Arizona and Michigan are also beginning to make cryptocurrency a strategic political issue.

Crypto-based Prediction Market Grows in Popularity

Liou predicts a surge in the use of crypto-based prediction markets by 2026. Such platforms are considered more efficient in aggregating information than conventional polls. Polymarket’s growth is an early indicator of this trend.

In addition, a number of large crypto companies are starting to enter this segment. Demand for market-based predictions for global political and economic issues is increasing. This signifies the expansion of crypto’s utility beyond mere asset trading.

Digital Asset Treasury Consolidation is Inevitable

The fourth prediction targets the pressure on digital asset treasury companies. After a wave of large launches, many entities are now trading below their crypto net asset value. This puts pressure on share performance and increases the risk of dilution.

For example, MicroStrategy notes a significantly weaker stock performance by the end of 2025. In this environment, a simple buy-and-hold strategy is no longer sufficient. Consolidation through merger or exit is expected to be the solution for weaker players.

Also read: US CPI Data to be Released on January 13, 2026, What Impact on Crypto?

Sovereign countries predicted to buy Bitcoin by selling gold

The most ambitious prediction is that at least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin (BTC). This would strengthen Bitcoin’s position as “digital gold.” The idea is becoming increasingly realistic amidst the diversification of global reserves.

Several European countries have opened discussions about Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Bitcoin’s portability and transparency are major attractions for countries looking to reduce dependence on the US dollar. If realized, this will be an important milestone in the adoption of cryptocurrencies at the country level.

To conclude, Patrick Liou’s five predictions describe 2026 as a transitional phase from hype to crypto institutionalization. Policy factors, capital markets, and the role of the state are expected to be more dominant than speculative cycles. As such, the future of cryptocurrencies will increasingly be determined by long-term structures and fundamentals.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Gemini Executive Shares Top 5 Crypto Industry Predictions for 2026. Accessed on January 10, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI