Will Bitcoin (BTC) Soar in 2026? Arthur Hayes Shares a Bold Prediction

Jakarta, Pintu News – Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, shared a bold prediction about the price of Bitcoin (BTC). He stated that BTC will likely see a rise in 2026, driven by the recovery of dollar liquidity.

In his recent essay titled Frowny Cloud, Hayes argues that this year could be a turning point for Bitcoin, despite the challenges it faces in 2025.

Dollar expansion will drive up Bitcoin price, says Arthur Hayes

In an essay titled “Frowny Cloud”, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that BTC prices will surge in 2026, potentially even reaching new record highs. “Obviously, I believe it will happen in 2026,” Hayes said. He added:

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“If gold and Nasdaq can rise, how can Bitcoin not make a comeback? Dollar liquidity has to increase for that to happen.”

Hayes based his prediction on the expansion of dollar liquidity triggered by a series of developments. Some of the factors he highlights include the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet through “money printing,” lower mortgage rates, increased lending by commercial banks to strategic industries supported by the US government, and broader fiscal policies to boost economic growth.

“The US will continue to demonstrate its military might, and to do so requires the production of weapons of mass destruction financed by the commercial banking system,” he added.

Hayes’ latest prediction that Bitcoin will reach an all-time record high reinforces his previous statements. As reported by the CoinGape website, Arthur Hayes had previously predicted that BTC would reach $500,000 by the end of 2026.

Historically, an increase in money supply has had a positive impact on Bitcoin. This is because investors tend to seek out riskier assets in times of inflation, as the value of the dollar is expected to decline.

In this context, Hayes explains that the BTC price drop in 2025 is due to the reduced liquidity of the dollar.

BTC’s price struggle in 2025 reveals a story about liquidity

By the end of last week, BTC was at $96,241, after plummeting below $85,000 by the end of 2025 due to the severe crypto market crash on October 11.

After the incident, the price of Bitcoin experienced sharp fluctuations and struggled to break the crucial $100,000 level. Yet just a few weeks before the crash, the price of BTC had reached a record high of $126,000.

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In his essay, Arthur Hayes blames these market dynamics on government intervention and liquidity conditions. He notes:

“Through executive orders and government investment, Trump is blunting free market signals so that capital, regardless of real returns, flows into all things AI.”

Although the crypto market, including BTC, has been in decline, this has paved the way for growth in technology stocks. The tech sector has been the best performing sector in the S&P 500 index, with significant returns ranging from 24.6% to 6.6% – well above the overall average of 18%. Hayes adds:

“Liquidity was not favorable for our crypto portfolios back then. But let’s not draw the wrong conclusions from Bitcoin’s poor performance in 2025. As always, it’s all about liquidity.”

According to Arthur Hayes, the huge drop in BTC price is not a reflection of the crypto’s own weakness, but rather of the dollar’s liquidity conditions. He sees Bitcoin as a “monetary technology” whose value is strongly linked to the decline in the value of fiat currencies.

“This alone is a guarantee that the value of Bitcoin will never go to zero,” said the BitMEX founder.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coingape. Arthur Hayes Predicts BTC Price to Surge in 2026 Amid Dollar Liquidity Expansion. Accessed on January 19, 2026