Gold Breaks Above $5,000 as JPMorgan Forecasts a Surge to $6,300

Jakarta, Pintu News – Gold prices are currently trading near $5,055 (Rp85,012,530) per ounce, up 2.82% as of February 4, 2026, signaling a gradual recovery after the previous sharp correction. This rise comes after a drastic drop at the end of last month that shook global markets.

Previously, gold prices had surged to record highs due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, before plummeting sharply. Currently, market participants are monitoring whether this recovery trend will continue or enter a consolidation phase.

What Triggers the Sharp Drop?

Gold prices plummeted more than 9.8% on January 30, recording the largest daily decline since 1983. Selling pressure increased after CME Group raised margin requirements for gold futures contracts on Comex from 6% to 8%.

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Margins for silver were also raised, from 11% to 15%, which forced traders with leveraged positions to quickly reduce their holdings. As a result, the liquidation spilled over to the rest of the precious metals and extended the losses over the next few sessions. These events highlighted that the sharp decline was due to positioning rather than market fundamentals.

Volatility Reaches Rare Extreme Levels

Market behavior changed drastically when gold volatility surged to levels rarely seen in modern trading. Bloomberg data showed that gold’s 30-day volatility rose above 44%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

This even surpasses Bitcoin’s volatility of 39%, which is unusual for an asset that has been considered a stable store of value. During the massive sell-off, gold began to trade like a speculative instrument, although its long-term performance remains strong.

In the last 12 months, the price of gold has risen by around 66%, while Bitcoin has fallen by around 21%.

Asian demand triggers recovery

Gold prices experienced a strong rebound during the Asian trading sessions on February 3 and 4, as buying interest returned after the massive sell-off. Gold spot prices rose about 2% intraday before settling at around $5,055 on February 4, while silver prices surged up to 6%.

Other metals such as platinum and palladium also posted gains. The weakening US dollar also eased pressure on metals priced in dollars. Meanwhile, Chinese demand was back in the spotlight as buyers flooded Shenzhen ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, signaling renewed physical interest at lower price levels.

Central Banks Underpin Bullish Trend

Despite the turmoil in the short term, major banks continue to project a rise in gold prices in the medium term.

JPMorgan, for example, raised its gold price projection for the end of 2026 to $6,300 (IDR105,003,800) per ounce – the highest among other global financial institutions. The bank cited gold purchases by central banks and reserve diversification as key drivers.

JPMorgan now forecasts that the central bank will buy around 800 tons of gold by 2026, up from its previous estimate of 755 tons. Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and UBS also maintain gold price targets near or above $6,000, reinforcing confidence in structural demand.

Macro Risks Still Color the Outlook

Geopolitical risks and uneven global growth continue to support gold’s strategic appeal. Investors remain wary of developments involving Iran, after US President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of negotiations on a new nuclear deal.

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Diplomatic progress could potentially reduce demand for safe haven assets in the short term. However, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year and lingering inflation concerns maintain gold’s relevance in diversified portfolios. These factors continue to influence price movements in global markets.

Technical Structure Remains Sturdy

From a technical point of view, the gold price has corrected to touch important Fibonacci levels after a long rally. The price still respects the rising trendline and finds support around the 0.65 and 0.618 retracement zones.

This structure indicates a possible sideways consolidation phase, not a trend reversal. Currently, traders are waiting to see if gold can hold above these levels before attempting another move up.

Correction, Not a Trend Reversal

Most analysts view the recent sharp decline as a correction in an ongoing bullish trend. Fundamental factors remain strong, while market positioning is undergoing an adjustment after aggressive buying over the past few months.

Gold is currently entering an adjustment phase, but long-term targets from major banks suggest that the gold rally story is far from over.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpaper. Gold Price Forecast: Hits $5,000 as JPMorgan Predicts $6,300. Accessed on February 5, 2026