Silver Price Plummets to 2026 Low! Is it a Good Time to Buy?

Jakarta, Pintu News – The silver price (XAG/USD) has just recorded a 2026 record low by touching the $60 level on March 23, before moving back around $69. This sharp correction was predicted earlier by analysts through a head-and-shoulders pattern that finally materialized.

However, the big question that now arises is whether this low has been a turning point, or if it’s just a pause before a deeper decline occurs. This article will dissect the technical data, market sentiment, and macro factors affecting the current silver price.

COT Data and SLV Options Reveal the Direction of Market Movement

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC on March 10 showed that large speculators started to reduce their exposure to silver. Non-commercial long positions fell by 920 contracts to 33,306, while short positions also fell by 2,160 to 8,728. Although the net position is still trending long, the direction of movement has started to change, with open interest rising by 2,132 contracts signaling the addition of new short positions.

On March 17, the decline in long positions was even sharper, falling by 2,181 contracts to 31,125, while short positions rose by 516 to 9,244, and open interest fell by 700 contracts, signaling a sell-off driven by liquidation. The price movement of silver during this period was significant, from around $85 down to $69, or a correction of around 18% in just over a week.

The next COT data to be released on March 27 will be crucial to see if long positions start to come back into the market. If managed money longs start to rise for the first time in weeks, this could be an early signal that silver prices have found a floor.

Gold-Silver Ratio and US Dollar Index Are the Key Determinants

The gold-silver ratio peaked at 72.81 in early February, but has now fallen to 63.37. The decline in the ratio indicates that silver has started to strengthen relative to gold, and if the ratio falls below 62.84, then silver is expected to continue to outperform gold, which has historically been a bullish signal. However, the main force influencing silver prices remains the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY is currently at 99.26 and is forming a bull flag pattern on the daily chart.

On March 19, the DXY briefly touched 100.56, coinciding with the start of the sharp decline in silver prices. If the DXY breaks above 100, the pressure on silver prices will be stronger, regardless of COT data or SLV options. Conversely, if the DXY drops below 98.48, even towards 97.30, the chances of silver price recovery will become more and more wide open.

Geopolitical factors such as the escalation of the Iran conflict also have the potential to trigger a rise in oil prices, which in turn increases inflation expectations, pushes yields up, strengthens the dollar, and depresses silver prices. Conversely, in the event of de-escalation, the chain of effects will reverse and favor a recovery in silver prices.

Technical Analysis: Fibonacci and Hidden Bullish Divergence

Technically, the 12-hour chart shows two important signals that support the possibility of a local bottom in silver prices. First, a hidden bullish divergence has formed, where the latest low around $60 is in the same zone as the support on December 12.

However, the RSI indicator actually registered a much lower level compared to the December period, signaling that selling pressure is starting to weaken even though the price is again testing the same support zone. Secondly, this $60 level coincides strongly with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension taken from the January 29 top, February 5 bottom, and March 1 bounce.

The Fibonacci 0.618 level is known as a very strong structural support zone in technical analysis, and silver prices are responding to it with great precision. If this $60 level holds, the next recovery targets are at $74 (Fibonacci 0.382), $82 (Fibonacci 0.236), and the peak at $96 which is also the head of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern. However, if $60 is broken at the 12-hour close, the next support is at $51, which means a potential further drop of up to 26%.

Conclusion

In conclusion, silver prices are currently at an important crossroads determined by a combination of technical factors, market sentiment, and global macro variables. The three key indicators to watch are whether the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $60 holds, whether the COT data shows the return of long positions from managed money, and whether the DXY is able to break below 98.48. If all three align, then the chances of a local low forming are greater and a recovery in silver prices could take place. However, if any of them fail, the risk of further decline is still wide open.

Also Read: Altcoin Season Index: An Important Indicator to Know the Altseason

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Tokenized Silver ETF (SLVon) as an Alternative Commodity Asset in the Crypto Ecosystem

The tokenized Silver ETF (SLVon) is a digital token issued by Ondo Global Markets and designed to follow the price movements of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world’s largest silver ETF managed by BlackRock.

Each SLVon has the equivalent value of an SLV share (1:1), so its price moves up and down according to the global silver price in troy ounces. Through SLVon, investors can gain exposure to the silver market on-chain in the form of an easily accessible digital asset.

*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Silver Price Sets a New 2026 Low, but Is the Bottom Already In?. Accessed on March 25, 2026