Bitcoin (BTC) Bear Market Only 90 Days, Big Rally Coming After April 15, 2025?

Jakarta, Pintu News—Amid the uncertainty in the crypto market due to the global trade war, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a price drop that has sparked fears of a bear market. However, according to market analyst Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, this condition will not last long.

He predicts that the current bear market will last only 90 days and will be less deep than previous cycles. This prediction brings a ray of hope amid geopolitical pressures and declining investor appetite for speculative assets.

Check out the full analysis here!

This Time’s Bear Market is Considered Weak and Brief

According to Peterson, the current bear market is just a natural correction of the previous trend and is not as bad as the previous four major bear market cycles of 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Based on his data, a price drop of more than 20% from the highest peak of Bitcoin (BTC) is something that happens almost every year.

However, the duration and scale of the correction this time are considered still within reasonable limits and show signs of ending soon. He even predicted that the price of BTC would not fall much below the $50,000 level.

Peterson also said that Bitcoin’s growing adoption is a major restraining factor to keep the price from falling further. According to him, the current market momentum is strong enough to keep BTC above $80,000 or around Rp1.3 billion in the short term.

Moreover, he predicts that there will be a mild correction in the next 30 days before the market bounces back. In fact, he said there is a chance of a 20-40% rally after April 15, 2025, which will encourage renewed interest from retail investors.

Read also: Gold stablecoins will shift the dominance of the US Dollar? Max Keiser Reveals This!

Trade War Pressures Crypto Markets and Speculative Assets

The crypto market correction this time was largely triggered by geopolitical tensions, especially the export tariffs that US President Donald Trump imposed on a number of trading partner countries.

This policy triggered retaliatory tariffs from other countries, creating fears of a long-term trade war. In effect, investors began withdrawing from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). The price of BTC plummeted along with the stock market and other speculative assets.

The decline in interest in crypto is evident from Glassnode Hot Supply data, which measures the amount of BTC held for a week or less. The data shows a significant drop from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% on March 20, 2025.

This signals that short-term investors and speculators are starting to leave the market. Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard predicts that the pressure from the trade war will continue to overshadow the crypto market at least until April 2025, when international negotiations are expected to ease tensions.

Also read: Is Cardano (ADA) Ready to Surge? Analyst Ali Martinez Highlights Buy Signals at the End of March!

Retail Investors Have Entered, Hope for New Inflow Wanes

According to a report from CryptoQuant, most retail investors are already in the Bitcoin market, so the chances for the next big push from a new wave of buying are slim.

This raises concerns that new liquidity that could push prices higher will be hard to come by in the near future. Meanwhile, the narrative that Bitcoin (BTC) is a “safe haven” is being questioned again after its price fell along with other risky assets on the tariff news.

BTC’s price movements following global sentiment show that the cryptocurrency market is still highly vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions. While Bitcoin is often promoted as a hedge, investors still treat it as a high-risk asset.

This makes long-term adoption important, but reliance on short-term market sentiment remains a major challenge. Therefore, the momentum after April 15 will be crucial to determining the crypto market’s next direction.

Conclusion

Although the crypto market faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and a lack of new liquidity, analysts are optimistic that this bear market is only temporary. Predictions of a 90-day duration and a potential post-April rally provide renewed hope for patient investors.

In the midst of a global economic storm, Bitcoin’s (BTC) resilience is being tested once again – and the future of the cryptocurrency market will largely depend on how investors respond to these dynamics.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Cointelegraph. The current BTC ‘bear market’ will only last 90 days – Analyst. Accessed March 24, 2025.
• Featured Image: Generated by AI