Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitwise Asset Management, through its European research arm, suggests that the sharp decline that followed the military escalation between Iran and Israel is likely to be followed by a strong recovery rally in Bitcoin (BTC). Based on an analysis of the twenty largest geopolitical risk events since July 2010, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 31.2% on average fifty days after the event, with a median gain of 10.2%.
According to Bitwise, major geopolitical risk events tend to be good buying opportunities for Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets. The company’s in-house Crypto Asset Sentiment Index briefly dipped below zero on Friday-the first since May-but has returned to bullish territory as of Monday morning. This was driven by inflows into exchange-traded products and continued US dollar weakness.
Along with the first open exchange of missiles between Tehran and Jerusalem, the market is testing historical analogies. Reports from the Associated Press suggest that Iran has fired more than 370 projectiles into Israel since June 13, causing at least twenty-four fatalities, while Israel claims to have destroyed more than 120 Iranian launchers and claims to have “full air superiority over Tehran.”
The confrontation triggered a classic flight to safety: gold surged past $3,430 per ounce on Friday, recording a new record high, while Brent crude oil prices soared and global equities were shaken. Bitcoin (BTC), which had approached an all-time high near $111,000 early last week, fell as low as $102,600 during the first wave of airstrike news before rebounding to the $106,000-$107,000 zone.
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New Low, What’s the Impact on the Market? (6/18/25)

Bitwise highlighted the “marked depreciation of the US Dollar,” as the DXY index fell to its weakest level since March 2022 following weaker-than-expected inflation data and a sustained increase in jobless claims. Federal funds futures now imply 1.9 rate cuts by December 2025, loosening global financial conditions that have historically been favorable for non-yielding and dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin (BTC).
With Bitcoin (BTC) currently priced at around $107,000, a 31% rally would take it to around $140,000. This suggests significant growth potential if the historical post-geopolitical crisis pattern repeats itself. Investors and analysts alike are watching closely to see if Bitcoin (BTC) will follow this trend again or if different market conditions will produce different results.
Despite high uncertainty in global geopolitics, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show its resilience as a safe haven asset. The projected rise to $140,000 not only shows investor confidence in the digital currency, but also Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential as a hedge against economic and financial instability.
Also Read: Global Tensions Heat Up, Crypto Takes a Hit: What Really Happened? (6/18/25)
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