5 Reasons Why September Could Be the Plot Twist for Bitcoin’s Q4 Journey According to Analysts

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) is entering what has historically been one of its strongest phases of the year. However, the ambitious target of Rp3.26 billion (USD 200,000) depends on how the crypto market reacts in September and early Q4 2025. Here are five key points to note.

1. Q4 is Bitcoin’s Golden Season

Historically, the fourth quarter (Q4) records an average yield of 85.4% for Bitcoin. Many major rallies in the past have occurred in this period, especially when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is easing monetary policy.

This easing usually boosts risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, due to increased liquidity and investor interest. This is the reason why Q4 is often the main momentum for BTC to set new records.

Read More: A Year of DCA Cardano (ADA): From Rp12 Million to Rp15.67 Million, Here’s the Journey

2. Potential Interest Rate Cut in September

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, even though inflation is still quite high. If true, this will trigger a “risk-on mode” in global markets, including in digital assets.

With only about 45 days to go until the Fed’s decision, investors have already started anticipating policy changes that could give BTC a strong boost.

3. Challenge Level Rp2.03 Billion as Support

Technically, BTC is consolidating in the range of Rp1.79 billion-Rp1.87 billion (USD 110,000-USD 115,000). Bitcoin ETF inflows have recently returned to positive, with an additional IDR 1.46 trillion (USD 90 million) after a massive outflow.

However, to pave the way to a record price, BTC must break and maintain the Rp2.03 billion (USD 125,000) level as support. Without this achievement, Q4 momentum could be delayed.

4. October-November: Best Rally Period

Based on historical data, October and November recorded a combined average gain of +67.91%. This period is usually the start of a major rally that pushes BTC to new highs.

December tends to be a month of consolidation, where many investors secure profits, hence the more moderate gains compared to the previous two months.

5. Macro Factors that Strengthen Momentum

Besides interest rate cuts, other factors such as global liquidity, ETF inflows, and investor sentiment play a big role. New capital flows from monetary easing usually flow into the crypto market, strengthening the potential for a rally in Q4.

If all these factors align, September could be the turning point towards a big Bitcoin move later in the year.

Conclusion

September 2025 has a chance to be an important “plot twist” for Bitcoin’s journey in Q4. A combination of historical, technical, and macroeconomic factors will determine whether BTC is able to break the Rp2.03 billion level and pave the way towards the ambitious Rp3.26 billion target.

Also Read: A Year of DCA XRP: From Rp12 Million to Rp29.78 Million, Here’s the Journey

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Ritika Gupta, AMBCrypto. Bitcoin – Why September could be the plot twist in BTC’s Q4 story. Accessed August 8, 2025.