September Bitcoin Outlook: 3 Key Scenarios to Watch After BTC Drops to $109K

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) has once again left traders confused. After falling to $109,000 with nearly $1 billion in liquidations, the market is divided on what comes next. Will September bring another weak month, a surprise rally, or even a deeper drop?

Renowned analyst, Altcoin Sherpa, has outlined three possible paths for Bitcoin-and each path tells a very different story.

Scenario 1: Slow Movement and Gradual Rise in September

According to Sherpa, the first most likely scenario is that September could be a “chop festival.”

Read also: Crypto Market Tanks, But Whales and Big Investors Keep Buying

Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, with prices closing in the red in 8 of the last 12 times, showing an average decline of 3.6%.

This trend indicates that Bitcoin may flatten out around the $100,000 level if the usual September decline continues. However, there is also the possibility of a bullish surprise.

A rate cut by the Fed in September could reverse this trend and push Bitcoin past $115K.

Scenario 2: Rapid Recovery and Faster Cycle

The second scenario is more aggressive. In this scenario, Bitcoin quickly recovers and moves higher, with traders again believing that Jerome Powell will cut interest rates and with new treasury-backed vehicles coming into the market.

Sherpa suggests that if this happens, we could see a sharp rally in September and October. However, this rapid recovery could also lead to a blow-off top forming, followed by a painful correction in the near future.

Scenario 3: Deeper Decline Driven by Macro Factors

The most bearish view is that Bitcoin’s recent weakness signals the start of a much larger decline. In this case, worsening macroeconomic pressures could lead to a sharp retracement.

Sherpa warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $75,000, creating a cycle similar to the decline from January to May 2025.

Read also: Bitcoin Price Hits $111,000 Today (Aug 27): Are Traders Starting to Pull Back and Sell?

Recovery, in this view, may only occur in the second quarter of 2026 after a long grueling period of consolidation.

Bitcoin ETFs & Whale Waves Make a Big Impact

Bitcoin’s late August plunge had a major impact on the institutional market. Exchange-traded crypto funds (ETFs) saw outflows of nearly $1.5 billion, which was the largest since March 2025.

In addition, the whale movement added further pressure, with a seven-year-old wallet moving 22,769 BTC worth $2.59 billion to Ether. This sudden move triggered a sharp $4,000 drop in Bitcoin price in a single day.

Currently (27/8), Bitcoin is trading at around $111K, up about 1% in the last 24 hours, bringing the market capitalization to $2.21 trillion.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpedia. Bitcoin September Forecast: 3 Scenarios Traders Must Watch After $109K Crash. Accessed on August 27, 2025