5 Key Points of Arthur Hayes’ Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Reach Rp56 Billion by 2028?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund, has made another bold prediction. In his latest analysis, he estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to break $3.4 million (around Rp56.7 billion at an exchange rate of Rp16,680/USD) in 2028, triggered by fiscal policy and massive liquidity expansion in the United States.

Here are the 5 main points of the Hayes analysis model that is being talked about.

1. US Political Scenario is the Trigger

On September 22, 2025, Hayes explained that if Donald Trump returns to office, US monetary policy could be a big catalyst for Bitcoin price.

He highlighted the figure of Scott Bessent, a candidate for US Treasury Secretary, who may implement a policy similar to Yield Curve Control (YCC)-most recently used during World War II to reduce government borrowing costs. According to Hayes, this scheme has the potential to create a new wave of liquidity.

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2. Credit and Bitcoin Growth Model

Hayes directly linked credit growth to Bitcoin price projections. He calculated that every 1 dollar of credit growth contributes to a 0.19% increase in Bitcoin price.

From this model, he concluded: “Ladies and gentlemen, that yields a predicted Bitcoin price of $3.4 million in 2028!”

3. Clarification: Target Number is Not the Main Thing

Despite mentioning the fantastic figure of $3.4 million per BTC, Hayes emphasized that this prediction is more about trend direction, not price certainty.

He emphasized: “Do I believe Bitcoin will reach $3.4 million in 2028? No, I don’t. But I believe it will be much higher than the current price of around $115,000 (Rp1.9 billion).”

4. Bitcoin and Gold Are Winners in the Age of Liquidity

Hayes’ analysis highlights a major shift between asset classes. As the US government “prints trillions of dollars”, fiat currencies and government bonds could be under pressure.

In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are predicted to be the top winners as they both serve as a store of value independent of state authorities.

5. Policy Direction is More Important than Numbers

Hayes concludes his analysis by emphasizing that the direction of fiscal and monetary policy is more important than just price figures.

According to him, Bitcoin is the “fastest horse” to face the era of liquidity expansion. With its limited nature to 21 million coins, BTC is considered very sensitive to credit growth and global investor demand.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ prediction adds to the long list of bullish projections for Bitcoin. While the figure of $3.4 million per BTC may sound bombastic, the gist of his analysis is that the direction of US fiscal policy has the potential to drive huge demand for alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold.

For investors, understanding the relationship between monetary policy, global liquidity and crypto assets is key to navigating the next decade.

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Kevin Helms / Bitcoin.com News. Arthur Hayes Analyzes Bitcoin Model Pointing to $3.4M by 2028. Accessed September 24, 2025.