Jakarta, Pintu News – Since mid-October, many altcoins have experienced sharp declines due to massive deleveraging in the derivatives market. However, analysts believe that a number of indicators now point to the possibility of altcoins forming a stabilization zone and preparing for a short-term rebound in November.
What are the signs? The following analysis will discuss them in depth.
Towards the end of October, the market’s Fear and Greed Index stood at 29, reflecting continued fear. This sentiment had persisted for three consecutive weeks since the liquidation event on October 11.
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This fear has made investors hesitant. However, on the positive side, most altcoins have now formed stable price ranges, without printing new lows.
There is evidence to support this view. According to Altcoin Vector – an account known for presenting institutional-grade reports from Swissblock – the OTHERS/BTC chart (which represents the value of all altcoins outside the top 10 against Bitcoin) saw a sharp decline from above 0.14 in September to below 0.12 in October.
However, the chart has now entered the “Stabilization” phase, which indicates that the price is starting to move in a more stable range.
The WIF/USD pair is a representative example that shows movement in line with the general market trend.
“If this stabilization zone holds as support, we could see a short-term altcoin rally – not an altcoin season, but a recovery move that could ease downward pressure,” Altcoin Vector said.
Keeping a cautious tone, Altcoin Vector only foresees a short-term recovery rally during the month of November. However, other analysts are more optimistic and imply the potential start of a true altcoin season, characterized by strong price spikes.
Using the same OTHERS/BTC chart, Michaël van de Poppe – founder of MN Fund and macroeconomic analyst – expressed a more optimistic view. He calls this chart one of the most valuable in the market today.
According to van de Poppe, altcoins are currently at undervalued levels, equivalent to previous market bottoms such as the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2020.
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Both periods were followed by massive rallies. In 2017, the market experienced an explosive altcoin season, where Ethereum and other altcoins surged hundreds of times. Meanwhile, in 2020-2021, there was a full-scale post-pandemic bull run.
Meanwhile, analyst Javon Marks highlighted the RSI indicator of the Others Dominance chart, which measures the market share of altcoins outside the top 10 against the total crypto market.
Marks noted that for the first time in history, the OTHERS.D chart has entered the extreme oversold zone – the deepest oversold level ever recorded on the monthly RSI.
“When a market is oversold, it can mean that prices have fallen ‘too deep’, selling pressure has weakened, and a potential recovery or reversal could be imminent,” Marks explained.
Another well-known analyst, Ted, also shares a similar view by predicting a “beautiful bull market”.
As such, some top analysts are predicting a potential recovery for altcoins in the coming month. Historically, the altcoin season often starts around November.
However, current market sentiment remains cautious. The Altcoin Season Index is still below the 50 mark, and fear still looms over investors – even as the Fed has started to lower interest rates. This shows that the current market conditions are very different compared to previous cycles.
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