Jakarta, Pintu News – Coinbase Institutional recently released a monthly prospective report showing the potential for a Bitcoin market rebound in December after a less than encouraging performance in November.
The report attributes changes in Federal Reserve policy and market dynamics that may favor risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. This analysis comes at a time when investors are looking for bright spots amid global economic uncertainty.
A report from Coinbase’s institutional division highlights that the Federal Reserve is re-engaging in the bond market as the end of the quantitative easing policy. This is interpreted as an end to the drain of cash from the markets, which usually has a positive impact on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. This change is expected to ease the pressure on liquidity that has been weighing on the market.
According to the report, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant underperformance compared to US equities on a risk-justified basis in November. Bitcoin fell more than three standard deviations from its 90-day average, while the S&P 500 fell only one standard deviation. This discrepancy suggests that Bitcoin may have experienced overselling, providing potential for a rebound.
November has been a challenging month for the cryptocurrency market, with spot ETF fund flows turning negative and recording record cumulative outflows. The report also noted that stablecoin supply contracted with the weakest 30-day momentum since 2023. This suggests a decline in confidence and liquidity in the market.
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In addition, long-term Bitcoin holders tend to distribute their coins rather than accumulate them over the period. Digital asset investment vehicles also traded below net asset value for the first time in 2024. This suggests selling pressure may have peaked, giving room for a recovery in value.
The Coinbase report also alluded to a K-shaped economic recovery, where artificial intelligence-driven job dislocation could boost corporate profits yet reduce personal income stability. Nonetheless, evidence linking this trend to the cryptocurrency market is weak.
This suggests that external factors such as monetary policy may have a more significant impact. James Lavish, a former hedge fund manager, expressed optimism towards Bitcoin by criticizing the Federal Reserve’s policy of continuously reducing the value of the dollar.
According to him, Bitcoin (BTC) is capturing this dynamic as a safe haven asset. With a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, funds currently on the sidelines could start flowing into regulated Bitcoin vehicles.
With various factors starting to favor the cryptocurrency market, December may be a bright month for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Investors and market watchers will be looking forward to signs of stabilization and a potential rebound as the year comes to an end. Changing market conditions and supportive monetary policies could be key to a recovery in Bitcoin’s value.
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