Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Biggest Bullish Trigger Has Arrived — Here’s What You Need to Know

Jakarta, Pintu News – The crypto market is showing steady strength, with the total market capitalization rising to $3.09 trillion, an increase of 1.1% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $91,119, gaining 1.55% on the day and nearly 6% on the week.

Ethereum (ETH) also recorded a positive performance, trading at $3,112 after rising 1.87% on the day and jumping 10% on the week.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin is entering one of its strongest bullish phases, driven by changing liquidity conditions in the United States.

In a recent interview, Hayes stated that the situation at the end of 2025 is very similar to the surge in liquidity that pushed Bitcoin’s price up sharply in the second half of 2023.

Debt Ceiling Fight Creates a Wave of Liquidity

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Hayes explained that in both 2023 and 2025, the United States experienced a political battle over the debt ceiling.

During these times, the Treasury was forced to use funds from their main account called the Treasury General Account (TGA). When the government spends funds from the TGA, fresh money automatically flows into the financial system. This additional liquidity usually pushes markets up, including the price of Bitcoin.

However, once the debt ceiling is finally raised, the government has to replenish the TGA by issuing new debt. This process pulls liquidity out of the system, which usually has a negative impact on risky assets like stocks and Bitcoin.

Why 2023 is Experiencing a Massive Bullish Spike

In 2023, the US Treasury replenished the TGA by issuing short-term debt. However, they have a big advantage: the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility still holds about $2.5 trillion in funds left over from the pandemic era.

By issuing short-term bonds that offer high yields, the government managed to pull the funds out of the Fed and back into the market.

According to Hayes, this move injected $2.5 trillion of fresh liquidity into the economy from mid-2023 to early 2025, triggering a huge rally in the Bitcoin, stock, gold, and property markets.

Why 2025 is Different, But Still Positive

In 2025, the debt ceiling was raised again and the Treasury had to rebuild the TGA balance. But this time, the reverse repo reserves are almost exhausted. There is no more $2.5 trillion to tap.

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Instead, liquidity shrank by nearly $1 trillion between July and the end of 2025 due to bond issuance and the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) policy of the Federal Reserve, which is actively shrinking its balance sheet.

This reduction in liquidity negatively impacted Bitcoin and was one of the factors that pushed its price down to the $80,000 range.

Bullish Trigger: QT Ends and Liquidity Hits Bottom

According to Hayes, the turning point in the market has now arrived:

• The Fed has stopped its quantitative tightening (QT) policy.
• Liquidity pressures at the Treasury are beginning to ease.
• The TGA balance is close to the desired target.
• Banks in the US are starting to actively lend again.

Hayes states that Bitcoin’s recent drop to around $80,000 is the lowest point in this cycle. He expects the price of Bitcoin to rise again as global liquidity improves.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpedia. Crypto News: Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Biggest Bullish Catalyst Has Arrived. Accessed on December 8, 2025