5 Bitcoin Price Scenarios for January 2026: Rally to $123,500 or Rebound to Rp1.44 Billion?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the limelight of the cryptocurrency market in early 2026 as it moves into a key decision zone that could determine the direction of its next move. Popular crypto market analysts identified two most likely price scenarios based on recent price behavior and technical indicators; this information is summarized from a NewsBTC report that reflects analyst opinions and recent market data.

1. Bitcoin in Key Decision Zone After Early 2026 Rally

NewsBTC reports that Bitcoin is now at a price level of around USD90,500, a point that is considered an important decision zone after the rally earlier in the year. At this level, the price breakout or rejection decision will determine Bitcoin’s medium-term trend. This scenario was shared by Bitcoin analyst Meraklisi through a post on the X platform.

Analysts state that if Bitcoin manages a convincing breakout above this zone, the price could soon test the next resistance level. The resistance level is estimated to be around USD94,800 and will potentially open up further opportunities towards the six-figure zone. Movements in this zone reflect market conditions that are sensitive to macroeconomic news and global risk sentiment.

Technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) are also showing positive signals after Bitcoin broke out of a rising triangle pattern that ended the previous three-month downtrend. This provides a basis for further analysis that the market is at an important transition point.

Also Read: 2026, a Hopeful Year for Solana: Predictions and Challenges

2. Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin Breaks to $94,800 (Around Rp1.58 Billion)

If the breakout above the USD90,500 level is successful, analysts think Bitcoin has the opportunity to reach the target price of USD94,800 soon. This value is equivalent to around Rp1.58 billion per BTC based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = Rp16,708. This would show the strength of buyers overcoming selling pressure in key zones.

A break above USD94,800 will open the door to higher targets, including USD107,300. This level indicates a potential rally reinforced by the bullish momentum earlier in the year. Analysts also mentioned that the market could enter a further bullish phase if the positive sentiment continues.

Consistent price growth above major resistance is often a signal that market demand is dominating. This allows traders and investors to monitor the strengthening fundamentals of crypto market sentiment more broadly.

3. Extreme Bullish Scenario: Target USD123,500 (Approximately Rp2.06 Billion)

In an optimistic scenario, analysts say that Bitcoin could reach USD123,500, around Rp2.06 billion per BTC, if the upward momentum is strong enough. This reflects a potential increase of more than 36 percent from the price at the time of writing. This target indicates a very positive market response.

These extreme targets usually occur when breakouts in important zones are accompanied by broad market sentiment favoring capital inflows into risky assets like BTC. External factors such as global monetary policy and institutional adoption are also important catalysts.

If Bitcoin reaches this target, the crypto market could enter an intense bullish phase, solidifying BTC’s position as the leading asset in the digital market. This projection reflects medium-term optimism among technical analysts.

4. Bearish Scenario: Zone Rejection and Initial Drop to $88,000 (Approximately Rp1.47 Billion)

Conversely, if Bitcoin experiences rejection at the key decision zone and fails to break through resistance, the price could soon drop to around USD88,000 or about Rp1.47 billion. Analysts call this an alternative scenario to watch out for after price movements at critical levels.

The drop to this level reflects renewed selling pressure and indicates a more cautious market sentiment. This scenario also suggests that short-term support could be tested again after a long sideways or consolidation phase.

The market response below this level will be an important indicator to determine whether the bearish trend can continue or whether a deeper support zone will be active. Failure to maintain this level often signals continued decline.

5. Deeper Drop Scenario to $86,000 (Approximately Rp1.44 Billion)

In an extreme bearish scenario, Bitcoin could experience a further drop towards around USD86,000 or about Rp1.44 billion if the bullish momentum completely fails. This risk arises if selling pressure continues to increase after the rejection of the key decision zone.

This decline suggests that the next major support will be tested, and technical indicators need to be monitored closely for potential rebound areas. This scenario is more likely if global markets face economic pressure or risk sentiment sharply increases.

The dynamic between breakouts and pullbacks illustrates that the Bitcoin price is in a sensitive phase, where the medium-term price direction is highly dependent on price action in key decision zones. The subsequent movements will tell us about the broader trend of the cryptocurrency market.

Also Read: Ripple’s (XRP) Big Breakthrough in 2026, Are You Ready?

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• NewsBTC. Bitcoin Reaches Key Decision Zone:2 Possible Price Scenarios – Analyst. Accessed January 5, 2026.