Bernstein: “Bear Market Just a Disruption, Bitcoin Aimed to Break $150,000 in 2026!”

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bernstein investment research analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) despite the market being in a sharp correction phase. According to them, this bear market is not as structurally damaging as previous cycles and is triggered more by a short-term loss of confidence than a collapse in fundamentals. With this conviction, Bernstein maintains its projection of Bitcoin price at US$150,000 by the end of 2026.

Bear Market Without a “Systemic Explosion”

In a note to clients, the Bernstein team led by Gautam Chhugani called this phase one of the worst bear markets in terms of price, but not market structure. They compared the current downturn to previous cycles characterized by major failures such as Mt. Gox, Terra-Luna, FTX, and Three Arrows Capital. Back then, bankruptcies and hidden leverage created an entire crisis of confidence.

This time, Bernstein thinks there is no comparable systemic implosion. The Bitcoin network continued to run normally without technical glitches, there was no wave of mass insolvencies, and the market did not experience liquidity freezes as in past crisis phases. Therefore, they conclude that the price weakness reflects low confidence in current valuation levels, rather than damage to the long-term investment case.

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The Role of ETFs, Liquidity and the Macro Narrative

Bernstein also highlighted another important difference compared to previous cycles, namely much stronger institutional alignment. The approval and development of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States – which already provide the infrastructure for large-scale fund inflows – is seen as an important foundation for the next cycle. According to them, the ETF system is “working as designed”, but is temporarily held back by extremely tight global financial conditions.

The firm expects ETF inflows to increase significantly when global liquidity begins to loosen. At the same time, they recognize that Bitcoin still trades like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, rather than fully behaving as a safe haven like gold.

The underperformance of gold in recent months reflects that the asset is still highly sensitive to high interest rates and monetary tightening, although the long-term adoption trend is considered to remain positive.

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AI, Quantum, and the Resilience of BTC’s Structure

In response to fears that Bitcoin’s value will be eroded by an increasingly artificial intelligence (AI)-driven economy, Bernstein thinks otherwise. They argue that blockchain and programmable wallets are part of the evolution of autonomous digital systems, and Bitcoin remains relevant as a machine-readable layer of global finance. In other words, the emergence of AI does not necessarily diminish BTC’s role in the digital finance architecture.

Regarding the risks of quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledges the need for long-term cryptographic planning, but insists that Bitcoin is not in a uniquely vulnerable position. Other critical digital systems face similar challenges and will eventually have to adapt together.

On the other hand, they see large-scale BTC-holding companies generally having sufficient liability structures to withstand prolonged declines, while miners’ capitulation risk is reduced thanks to diversification into AI-related energy demand. Some analysts, such as Mike Alfred, even see a “slingshot” scenario: a further decline that is enough to shake out weak holders before a more explosive upward move.

Conclusion

For Bernstein, the current Bitcoin bear market is more of a crisis of confidence amid tight macro conditions, not the end of a long-term investment thesis. The absence of a systemic implosion, the support of spot ETF infrastructure, and Bitcoin’s relevance in an increasingly intelligent digital ecosystem are the basis for their belief in maintaining a price target of US$150,000 by the end of 2026. While they don’t rule out a further decline in the short term, they think the market structure and foundations for adoption this time around are much more robust than in past cycles.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• CoinGape. Bernstein Downplays Bitcoin Bear Market Jitters, Predicts Rally To $150k This Year. Accessed February 10, 2026.
• Featured Image: Generated by AI