4 US Economic Agendas Ready to Rock Bitcoin (BTC) Price in Late February!

Jakarta, Pintu News – As the end of February approaches, the crypto market, especially Bitcoin (BTC), is in a vulnerable position due to pressure from a number of US economic agendas. Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are now heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March.

After last week’s sluggish PCE inflation data, jobless claims that remained low at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, market participants are still uncertain about the pace of interest rate cuts. Four major economic events in the last week of February are predicted to trigger major volatility in the crypto market.

Federal Reserve Officials’ Statements: Market Determinants

A number of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to give speeches from Monday to Wednesday, including Governors Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Each of their statements is highly anticipated as it could change market expectations regarding the direction of interest rate policy.

Waller and Bostic are known to be hawkish, often emphasizing the importance of inflation caution and reliance on the latest economic data. If they again highlight inflation risks or suggest that interest rate cuts are delayed, US bond yields and the value of the dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) prices.

On the other hand, if the tone of their speeches is more dovish by highlighting slowing economic growth or labor market weakness, the US dollar could potentially weaken and trigger a rally in riskier assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). The large number of scheduled speeches in close proximity also increases the risk of intraday volatility, especially if the messages are inconsistent.

Consumer Confidence Index: A Signal of US Economic Health

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February is in the spotlight after January’s reading of 84.5, well below expectations and indicating a potential recession. The projection for February improved slightly to 87.5, but sentiment is still depressed due to the high cost of living and inflation that is not yet fully under control.

The latest PCE inflation data showed annual inflation at 2.7% and core inflation at 3.0%, signaling price pressures are still being felt. If February’s consumer confidence data surpasses 90, the resilient consumer narrative will be even stronger, reinforcing the belief that the US economy will not go into recession anytime soon.

This could lower expectations of a rate cut in the near future, strengthen the US dollar, and put pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). Conversely, if consumer confidence data falls below 85 again, it will highlight economic vulnerabilities and increase the chances of a rate cut, which is usually a positive sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC).

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History shows that surprises in consumer confidence data can trigger a 1-2% movement in the price of Bitcoin (BTC), especially if it is in line with global macroeconomic trends. Therefore, crypto market participants pay close attention to this data release as a leading indicator of market direction.

Weekly Jobless Claims Data

Weekly jobless claims data is the fastest indicator to monitor the condition of the US labor market. Last week, claims fell to 206,000, lower than expected and signaling a labor market that is still very tight, keeping the Fed cautious about easing policy.

The consensus for this week is at 215,000, and if the actual data comes back below 210,000, labor market strength will further pressure the chances of a rate cut. This usually has a negative impact on Bitcoin (BTC) as it reduces liquidity in the risky asset market.

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PPI data in January

In addition, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January is also a major concern as it provides an early snapshot of inflationary pressures before they reach consumers. If the core PPI surpasses 3.2%, inflation concerns will return and interest rate cut expectations will decrease, putting pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) through a strengthening dollar and rising real yields.

However, if the PPI is lower than 2.8%, the disinflationary momentum will get stronger, prompting the market to expect more aggressive monetary policy easing and potentially lifting the Bitcoin (BTC) price closer to $70,000. The combination of jobless claims and PPI data later this week is predicted to trigger Bitcoin (BTC) volatility of up to 2-3% if the results fall short of market expectations.

Conclusion

With Bitcoin’s (BTC) correlation to Nasdaq and the US dollar at its highest level in months, macroeconomic sentiment remains a key driver of the crypto market. If this week’s economic data tends to be dovish, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially rally by 3-5%. However, if hawkish tones dominate, a price correction of similar magnitude is highly likely. Ultimately, liquidity expectations and monetary policy remain the main deciding factors, while crypto fundamentals still come in a close second.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. US Economic Events to Watch in February 2026: Impact on Bitcoin. Accessed on February 24, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI