3 Bitcoin Predictions: S2F Model Says BTC Could Average IDR8.49 Billion in 2026?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions are back in the news after renowned crypto analyst PlanB updated his projections using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. In the update, he estimated that the average price of Bitcoin in the 2024-2028 cycle could reach $500,000 per BTC. If converted using an exchange rate of 1 USD = IDR16,987, the figure is equivalent to around IDR8.49 billion per Bitcoin, making it one of the most ambitious projections in the cryptocurrency market today.

1. S2F Model Predicts Bitcoin Could Average Rp8.49 Billion

PlanB is known as the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model that analyzes asset scarcity to project Bitcoin prices. The model compares the total circulating supply (stock) to the annual production amount from mining (flow).

In a recent update, PlanB predicted that the average price of Bitcoin during the 2024-2028 cycle could reach around $500,000 or around Rp8.49 billion. This prediction comes even though Bitcoin is currently still trading at around $67,000 or around Rp1.13 billion.

According to the model, Bitcoin’s current price position is still within a zone that has historically been considered an attractive area for accumulation. This shows that the current BTC price is still considered relatively low compared to the long-term potential according to the S2F model.

Also Read: Crazy Prediction! Bitcoin could reach Rp2.02 billion in March 2026, ETH to Rp202 million?

2. Bitcoin Halving is a Major Factor in Price Increase

One of the key components in the Stock-to-Flow model is the Bitcoin halving mechanism, which is an event that reduces BTC mining rewards in half every four years or so. After each halving, fewer new Bitcoins enter the market.

This new decrease in supply, according to the S2F theory, can drive the price up as the scarcity of the asset increases. The higher the stock to flow ratio, the more scarce Bitcoin is considered in the model.

In the chart shared by PlanB, the S2F projection line shows a significant spike after the 2024 halving. The model forecasts a price target that gradually leads to the range of half a million dollars per BTC during the current cycle.

3. The S2F Model Was Once Accurate, but Remains Debatable

Supporters of the S2F model often highlight some of PlanB’s predictions that are considered quite accurate in Bitcoin’s history. For example, he started accumulating BTC in 2015 when the price was around $400, or about Rp6.79 million.

In 2019, when the Bitcoin price was still below $4,000, the S2F model predicted a rise to $55,000, which was achieved in the next cycle. This success made the model popular among cryptocurrency investors.

However, this model is also often criticized for only considering supply factors without taking market demand into account. Critics argue that macroeconomic dynamics, regulation, and technology adoption also play a big role in determining crypto prices.

Conclusion

The latest predictions from the Stock-to-Flow model show the potential for very high Bitcoin prices in the 2024-2028 cycle, with an estimated average of around $500,000 or around Rp8.49 billion per BTC. However, these projections still need to be viewed with caution as the cryptocurrency market is known to be highly volatile and influenced by many factors beyond mathematical models.

For investors and crypto newbies alike, models like S2F can serve as an analytical tool to understand Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, investment decisions should still take into account various other indicators as well as overall market conditions.

Also Read: 5 Big Crypto Issues of March 2026: FOMC, Stablecoins, to Unlock Billion Worth Tokens

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash beforeinvesting. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Gamza Khanzadaev / U.Today. Bitcoin Could Average $500,000 This Cycle, According to Updated S2F Model by PlanB. Accessed March 9, 2026.