7 Reasons Bitcoin (BTC) Could Fall to IDR1.17 Billion & US Inflation Rises as Oil Prices Rise

Jakarta, Pintu News – The cryptocurrency market is again showing strong dynamics ahead of the release of US inflation data as a sharp rebound in oil prices could increase inflationary pressures. According to Wall Street analysts and prediction market Kalshi, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially see a correction of close to US$65,000 if the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data comes in higher than expected. Investors need to understand the relationship between inflation, oil prices, and Bitcoin price movements to anticipate ongoing market volatility in 2026.

1. US Inflation Prediction Could Be Higher as Oil Prices Rise

Market risk analysis indicates that a rebound in oil prices after a significant drop could push US inflation higher. Wall Street and Kalshi’s prediction market expect monthly CPI to rise 0.3%, higher than the previous month, while annual inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.4-2.5%. Rising energy prices tend to push down the cost of living, thus triggering a rise in the inflation rate which has far-reaching implications for financial markets including crypto.

Also Read: How Many Days of Indonesia’s Oil Stockpile? Here are the Facts about Indonesia’s Fuel Reserves and Challenges

2. Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to slip below US$69,000

Ahead of the US CPI data release, Bitcoin price came under selling pressure and fell over 2%, trading below the US$69,500 level at the start of the trading session. Market options data also shows expectations that BTC could fall below the US$69,000 level within days if US inflation is really hotter than expected. This pressure shows that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to macroeconomic sentiment.

3. Strengthening Oil Prices Increase Inflation Risk

Rebounding oil prices are also an important factor supporting US inflation expectations. Rising oil prices lift energy and transportation costs in the global economy, which in turn puts pressure on inflation figures. This effect can magnify market concerns over the possibility of interest rate hikes or delayed rate cuts by central banks, conditions that are usually unfavorable for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

4. Bitcoin & Crypto Assets are Sensitive to Macroeconomic Sentiment

Bitcoin and crypto markets in general often react to important economic data such as the US CPI because changes in the inflation market and interest rate expectations affect investors’ risk preferences. When US inflation is expected to be higher, investor funds tend to move from riskier assets like BTC to safer instruments, resulting in increased selling pressure. This shows that Bitcoin price fluctuations are not just about technical indicators, but also macro news and data.

5. BTC Liquidity & Volatility Pressure Increases

In addition to inflationary pressures, market liquidity factors also come into play. The drop in trading volume and lower liquidity before the CPI data release suggests that traders are more cautious about entering the market. The combination of energy volatility, low liquidity, and macro sentiment makes BTC more prone to sharp corrections in the short term, let alone at psychologically important levels like US$69,000.

6. Oil Price Correlation & Investor Risk Sentiment

Rising oil prices not only have a direct impact on inflation but also change investors’ risk perception in the global market. As energy prices rise, the cost of producing and distributing goods increases, which in turn leads many investors to reassess their exposure to riskier assets. This includes Bitcoin, where volatility often increases alongside broader macroeconomic pressures.

7. Key Levels for Investors to Watch

Crypto investors need to pay attention to important technical levels in the market: if Bitcoin breaks the psychological level of US$69,000 (around Rp1.24 billion) and below, the potential for a further drop to US$65,000 (around Rp1.17 billion) is wide open. On the other hand, stabilizing inflation or falling oil prices could help restore bullish momentum for BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Also Read: Japan’s oil reserves reach 254 days: How Can It Have Such Large Energy Stocks?

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

References:
– Coingape. Will Bitcoin Retreat? Wall Street, Kalshi’s US CPI Inflation Estimate as Oil Prices Rebound. Accessed March 12, 2026.