6 US Economic Data Potential to Shake Crypto Ahead of Good Friday

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) entered the last week of March 2026 with high pressure, trading at around Rp1.145 billion after months of moving in a consolidation phase. The crypto market is now preparing for a series of US economic data that could potentially determine the direction of cryptocurrency movement in the short term.

Macro factors such as interest rate policy and labor conditions are key factors affecting investor sentiment. Under these conditions, volatility is expected to increase sharply ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

Jerome Powell’s speech is the first trigger for crypto volatility

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech is the main agenda that will open the week with high tension. Crypto investors will be looking closely at any statements regarding the direction of interest rate policy, especially whether there is a chance of a cut in the near future. Currently, the Fed still maintains interest rates in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with a projection of only one cut throughout 2026. This condition makes the market very sensitive to changes in policy tone.

If Powell gives dovish signals, the crypto market could potentially experience a rally as liquidity expectations increase. Conversely, hawkish statements could strengthen the US dollar and pressure riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) itself is still moving in a range of Rp1.105 billion to Rp1.292 billion throughout March. This suggests that the market is still waiting for a strong catalyst to determine its next direction.

JOLTS Data and Consumer Confidence Test the Health of the Economy

On Tuesday, two important data will be released simultaneously, namely JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence. The JOLTS data is expected to be at around 7 million job openings, a slight increase from the previous month. This figure is an important indicator for the Fed to assess the strength of the labor market. A significant decline could strengthen expectations of an interest rate cut.

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Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index is expected to fall to 88 from 91.2. This decline reflects the potential weakening of people’s purchasing power. For the crypto market, the combination of weak data can be a positive signal as it increases the chances of monetary policy easing. However, if the decline is too sharp, fears of a recession could also weigh on the market.

ADP and Retail Sales Are Early Indicators of the Labor Report

Wednesday will be an important day with the release of ADP Nonfarm Employment and Retail Sales data. The ADP data is expected to show an addition of around 63,000 jobs in the private sector. Although it often differs from the official government data, this figure remains an early benchmark of labor conditions. A big surprise in this data could directly affect the crypto market.

On the other hand, the Retail Sales report is projected to rise 0.4% after falling 0.2% previously. This data reflects the strength of public consumption which accounts for a large portion of the US economy. If both of these data weaken, the market could expect policy easing sooner. This has the potential to push Bitcoin (BTC) up towards the Rp1,156-Rp1,190 range.

US labor report determines Bitcoin’s direction

The highlight of the week is the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This data is expected to show an addition of around 45,000 jobs after a previous minus 92,000. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 4.5%, signaling a weakening labor market. This report will be a key indicator of the Fed’s policy direction.

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If the data results are weaker than expected, the chances of an interest rate cut increase. This could push up cryptocurrency prices in the short term. However, if the data is too bad and triggers fears of a recession, the crypto market could actually be depressed. This risk puts investors in a very cautious position.

Good Friday magnifies the risk of crypto market volatility

Interestingly, the NFP data release this time coincides with Good Friday when the stock market is closed. This creates the potential for high volatility as the market reaction is delayed. Large movements could occur when the market reopens the following day. This increases the risk of significant price gaps.

In this situation, crypto markets that remain open 24 hours have the potential to be more reactive than traditional markets. Investors will look to Bitcoin (BTC) as a primary asset to respond to macro news. Liquidity and sentiment can change rapidly in a short period of time. Therefore, risk management is crucial.

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Breakout or Deeper Correction?

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is at a tipping point after failing to break through resistance over the past two months. ETF inflows reached IDR24.99 trillion in early March, but fell back after the Fed’s decision. This shows that institutional sentiment is still highly dependent on macro conditions. The crypto market also moves with monetary policy expectations.

If economic data supports easing, Bitcoin could potentially break out of the consolidation phase. However, if macro pressures increase, the price could drop to the Rp1,054-Rp1,071 range. This movement will determine the medium-term direction of the cryptocurrency. Therefore, this week is a crucial moment for the global crypto market.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Jerome Powell Speech Among 6 Macros To Hit Bitcoin Before Good Friday. Accessed March 31, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by Ai