Bitcoin Realized Price Breaks 200-WMA: What Will Happen Next?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Recently, the Bitcoin Realized Price has surpassed the 200-week moving average (200-WMA) for the first time this cycle, signaling a potential major shift in the crypto market. According to analyst James Van Straten, this is a pivotal moment that could provide clues about the next direction of the Bitcoin market.

The Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that tracks the average investor’s cost for each unit of Bitcoin present on the network. When the Realized Price is higher than the spot price, it indicates that the majority of Bitcoin holders are in a position of unrealized gains. Conversely, if it is lower than the market price, investors as a whole are in a losing position.

1. What is 200-WMA and Why is it Important?

The 200-WMA is the moving average of the Bitcoin price over the last 200 weeks, which is often used to identify major changes in long-term price trends. In this case, when the Bitcoin Realized Price crosses the 200-WMA, it often signals a significant change in the Bitcoin price trend.

In the past, when a crossover like this occurred, Bitcoin price began a significant bull run. For example, the same crossover occurred in 2020, which coincided with the start of a bullish cycle that ended in 2022. However, in the 2017 cycle, no crossover preceded the bull run, although the price again tested the 200-WMA and soared.

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2. What Could Happen Next?

Looking at previous history, the Bitcoin Realized Price surpassing the 200-WMA can be an indicator of the start of a bull market. As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the average price of investors’ holdings also increases, which in turn drives the market higher.

However, while this crossover is often followed by a price rally, analysts also caution that there is a risk of high volatility that could arise. Therefore, it will be important to monitor how Bitcoin price holds above the 200-WMA in the coming weeks.

3. Noteworthy Data and Patterns

According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, institutional buying on Coinbase is currently registering very high volumes, with 75% of recent transaction volumes coming from institutional buying. Edwards indicated that whenever this figure is over 75%, Bitcoin price tends to rise one week after.

This indicates that there is great interest from institutional investors which might push Bitcoin higher. If this trend continues, we could see a bigger price spike after the crossover between the Realized Price and the 200-WMA.

4. Bitcoin Price Movement in Recent Days

Despite this crossover, Bitcoin price has been correcting in recent days. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $124,000, but has since fallen back to around $118,000. This indicates a market correction after the huge rally that took place.

While price corrections can provide opportunities to buy at lower prices, the crypto market remains highly volatile, and investors should be prepared for sharp price swings in a short period of time.

5. What Should Investors Look Out for?

Investors should closely monitor whether the Bitcoin Realized Price can stay above the 200-WMA and whether institutional trading volumes will continue to increase. If these two factors continue, the market will most likely enter a stronger bullish phase.

However, keep in mind that while these technical indicators point to upside potential, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market remains extremely high. Therefore, it’s important to always apply risk management in every investment decision.

Conclusion

The crossover between the Bitcoin Realized Price and the 200-WMA is a signal that can indicate a major change in the Bitcoin market trend. While this is often followed by a strong bull run, it is important to remain cautious given the high volatility of the market. With institutional interest continuing to grow, Bitcoin may be on track to test higher prices, but risk management remains key for investors.

Also Read: 7 Ethereum (ETH) Developments to Anticipate in 2025

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Keshav Verma / NewsBTC. Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next?. Accessed August 15, 2025.