Is the era of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle over? Here’s Arthur Hayes’ view!

Jakarta, Pintu News – A new view from Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, suggests that Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle may no longer be relevant. In a recent blog post, Hayes outlined that changes in macroeconomic factors have altered the dynamics that previously supported this cycle theory.

Changing Cycle Context

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin (BTC) has undergone three major cycles that each ended with a new price high. The first cycle, often referred to as the “genesis cycle,” lasted from 2009 to 2013. During this period, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant price spikes, which many attributed to aggressive quantitative easing policies in the United States in response to the global financial crisis.

However, Hayes argues that this four-year cycle theory will no longer hold true this time around. According to him, many still subscribe to this theory without understanding the real reason why Bitcoin (BTC) prices have surged in the past. With changes in global economic conditions and monetary policies, the factors that previously supported the Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle have changed.

Also Read: Trump’s Secret Plan May Push Bitcoin (BTC) to $250,000!

The Effect of ETFs on Cycles

One factor that is considered to have changed the dynamics of the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle is the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on Bitcoin (BTC). These ETFs have attracted a wider range of institutional and retail investors, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s (BTC) price volatility. CEO Ki Young Ju also stated that the four-year cycle theory may no longer be relevant as there are now more Bitcoin (BTC) holders than traders.

With the advent of ETFs, Bitcoin (BTC) becomes more accessible to investors who may not want to deal directly with crypto exchanges. This opens up the Bitcoin (BTC) market to a wider and more stable audience, which might reduce the rapid boom and bust cycles previously seen.

Market Paradigm Shift

Changes in the structure of the Bitcoin (BTC) market have also affected the price cycle. With more long-term holders compared to day traders, the dynamics of supply and demand have changed. This means that short-term price fluctuations may be less extreme, but also that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may be more stable in the long run.

In addition, changes in global monetary policy, such as tightening by central banks, may also affect the way investors view Bitcoin (BTC) as a safe haven asset or a hedge against inflation. All of these factors contribute to the view that the four-year cycle that was once predicted quite accurately may no longer be reliable as an indicator of the future.

Conclusion

With the various changes taking place in the global market and within the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem itself, the view that the four-year cycle has come to an end may indeed be well-founded. Investors and market watchers may need to adjust their strategies and no longer rely on historical patterns that may no longer be relevant in the current market conditions.

Also Read: 5 Robert Kiyosaki Predictions: USD Crashes & Crypto is Bought, Bitcoin Price Breaks Rp2 Billion!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• U.Today. Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Hayes Says. Accessed on October 10, 2025