Is the Altcoin Season Coming to an End? Top Traders Share Their New Timeline for the Next Rally

Jakarta, Pintu News – Crypto investors are starting to get impatient as altcoin performance continues to lag behind Bitcoin (BTC). For months, crypto traders have been asking the same question: Is altcoin season over, or is it just delayed?

According to a number of widely recognized market experts, altcoin season is most likely not over-it just hasn’t started yet. Here is when the altcoin season is expected to start.

Why is the Altcoin Season Delayed?

Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor, stated that the biggest mistake investors are making right now is assuming that the crypto quadrennial cycle will repeat itself.

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According to him, the extended debt maturity in 2021-2022 has tacitly extended the cycle by about a year. This change led to less liquidity in the so-called “banana zone,” thus delaying the usual altcoin rally.

Due to this delay, Pal believes that the four-year crypto cycle has now turned into a five-year cycle. In his view, the key economic indicator to watch is the ISM index.

Historically, when the ISM rises above the 50 mark, it is usually followed by a strong rally in Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and later altcoins.

When will Altcoin Season Start?

When addressing directly about when the altcoin season might start, Pal said:

“Our best estimate is in 2026, likely around the second quarter. That’s when the liquidity cycle is expected to peak.”

Most importantly, Pal refutes the notion that the crypto market is entering a long-term bearish period. Instead, he argues that the market is currently still in the building phase towards the next big move.

Raoul Pal’s views no longer stand alone. Market strategist Tom Lee also highlighted that when the ISM index rises back above 50, it has historically always coincided with strong moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This reinforces Pal’s view that the biggest potential gains in the crypto market are likely still ahead.

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Altcoin Chart Supports Time Forecast

Popular crypto trader Ash Crypto shared a chart showing the crypto market without the top 10 coins. The chart shows that prices are currently above strong long-term support levels – similar to the levels prior to past altcoin rallies.

Ash explained that the big altcoin rally usually starts only after the US Federal Reserve stops its quantitative tightening (QT) policy. When QT ends, liquidity slowly returns to the market, which helps risky assets like altcoins to rise.

He also adds that altcoin rallies don’t start easily. Prices often flatten or fall first, accompanied by sharp drops and liquidations that shake weak traders out of the market.

According to Ash, the current market structure is very similar to that of 2020. If this pattern repeats itself, then the altcoin season could start around 2026.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the Altcoin Season Index, the value is currently at 37 – indicating that the market is far from being in a state that can be called a true altcoin season.

FAQ

What is altcoin season?

Altcoin season is a period where cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC), such as Ethereum (ETH) and others, experience significant price increases compared to Bitcoin.

Why is the altcoin season delayed?

According to Raoul Pal, the delay is due to the extension of debt maturity during 2021-2022 which extends the crypto business cycle, reducing the expected liquidity.

When is the altcoin season expected to start?

Recent predictions suggest that the altcoin season will probably start around the second quarter of 2026, when the liquidity cycle is expected to peak.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpedia. Is Altcoin Season Dead? Top Traders Reveal New Timeline for the Real Altcoin Rally. Accessed on December 18, 2025