Instead of Uptober, Could Bitcoin’s Rally Begin in February? Here’s Why Crypto Analysts Think So

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) price movements throughout January 2026 have been limited, with relatively small monthly gains. This condition raises questions among crypto market players regarding the timing of the next rally. Some analysts believe that February has a more crucial role than October, which is synonymous with “Uptober”. Historical data and macro indicators are the main basis for such optimism.

February More Consistent than Uptober

Network analyst and crypto economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that February is statistically one of the most consistent months for Bitcoin. Based on data since 2016, the week ending around February 21 recorded a median weekly return of 8.4 percent. Overall, Bitcoin closed higher about 60 percent of the time in that period. This puts February above the seasonal performance of the ever-popular October.

Peterson thinks the main driving factor comes from macroeconomic dynamics, not crypto sentiment alone. Mid-February usually coincides with the release of annual financial reports of global corporations and projections of future performance. Optimistic sentiment from the stock market often encourages investors’ risk-on attitude. Under these conditions, some capital tends to flow into risky assets such as Bitcoin.

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The beginning of February will determine the market direction

Bitcoin’s performance in early February is often an indicator of market direction throughout the year. In major correction years like 2018, 2022, and 2025, price movements in the first three weeks of February have given early signals. In 2018, Bitcoin had risen about 4 percent before finally closing the year lower. Meanwhile, in 2022 and 2025, the price fell about 3 percent and 5 percent respectively at the beginning of the month.

The pattern makes the early February period the focus of attention for cryptocurrency market participants. If macro pressures start to ease, the chances of a reversal are wider. Peterson emphasizes the importance of market stress indicators such as the CBOE volatility index (VIX). A drop in global volatility often catalyzes a recovery in risky assets, including Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Optimistic

Beyond seasonal factors, Bitcoin’s long-term projections still show great potential. Bitcoin researcher Sminston With used the Bitcoin Decay Channel model to estimate the peak of the 2026 cycle. Based on the model, the price of Bitcoin is estimated to be in the range of USD 210,000 to USD 300,000, or around Rp3.51 billion to Rp5.01 billion. Although it does not predict the exact time, the model is considered quite consistent historically.

This optimistic view is reinforced by on-chain data and market momentum. The price consolidation since early January is considered to maintain the long-term capital flow structure. In addition, the increase in Realized Cap indicates an influx of spot capital into the Bitcoin network. This indicates that the crypto market is still building a foundation before the next big move.

To conclude, while a Bitcoin rally is not yet evident in early 2026, historical data and macro indicators signal differently. February has repeatedly been an important period in Bitcoin’s price cycle. If macro pressures continue to ease and risk-on sentiment returns, the crypto market’s anticipated rally could start sooner than expected. For investors, this month could potentially be a decisive point in the direction of the next trend.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Cointelegraph. Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why. Accessed January 29, 2026.
• Featured Image: Generated by AI