Jakarta, Pintu News – The movement of crypto and cryptocurrency markets in the next few months is considered no longer driven by speculative sentiment alone. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes emphasized that the main factor that will determine the direction of Bitcoin (BTC) is global central bank policy.

According to him, the pressures emerging in the traditional financial system are starting to shape new dynamics in the digital asset market. Investors are asked to pay more attention to macro signals than short-term market narratives.

Japan is a source of pressure on the global financial system

Arthur Hayes highlights Japan as a major pressure point in the global financial system today. The sharp weakening of the yen has coincided with a rise in Japanese government bond yields, a combination that reflects declining market confidence. Japan, which relies on energy imports, faces greater inflationary pressures when its currency weakens. This narrows the Bank of Japan’s policy space in maintaining economic stability.

In addition, the rise in bond yields increases the cost of government financing and has the potential to cause large losses for the Bank of Japan, which holds a significant portion of domestic bonds. Hayes sees this situation as a sign of diminishing monetary authority control over the market.

Impact to the US and Potential Fed Intervention

According to Hayes, the United States cannot ignore the turmoil in Japan. Japanese investors are among the largest holders of US government bonds. If Japanese domestic yields become more attractive, the potential for Japanese investors to sell US bonds may increase. Such a move risks pushing up Treasury yields and increasing the US government’s financing costs.

Under conditions of large fiscal deficits, rising borrowing costs are a serious pressure on the US economy. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve may intervene to stabilize the situation. This intervention does not have to be announced as quantitative easing, but could be done through balance sheet expansion to prop up the currency and bond markets.

Global Liquidity and Implications for Bitcoin

Hayes thinks Bitcoin’s sideways phase will end when liquidity flows back into the market. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally when central banks expand their balance sheets and the supply of fiat money increases. In that scenario, Bitcoin doesn’t need hype or a new narrative to rise. Price increases occur mechanically in response to liquidity expansion.

However, Hayes also warned of potential short-term pressure. Rapid yen movements could trigger risk-off sentiment and temporarily depress crypto markets. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring central bank balance sheets, not just daily price movements. Until there is a clear signal of money printing, Hayes prefers to be defensive and wait for confirmation of the direction of monetary policy.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

Coin Edition. Hayes: Bitcoin Moves Driven by Central Banks, Not Hype. Accessed January 29, 2026.
Featured Image: Bloomberg

Author

Kezia Marcellova

Topic

#Crypto Predictions 2026

#Arthur Hayes