XAU/USD Analysis and Predictions Today February 13, 2026

Jakarta, Pintu News – Gold price movement XAU/USD on February 13, 2026 is expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the release of important US economic data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment Claims.

The market awaits signals from these macro indicators to determine the short-term direction of gold against the US dollar, as fundamental factors such as USD strength and Fed rate expectations are the main catalysts. The following technical analysis, market sentiment, and daily scenario predictions are relevant for traders and investors.

XAU/USD Technical Structure Today

The latest analysis shows that XAU/USD is in a consolidation phase after a sideways movement around the $5,100 resistance level and the key support near $5,000. Gold prices today showed difficulty in breaking new highs, while buyers are still trying to maintain bullish pressure above the psychological mark. Bollinger Bands and daily ranges show moderate volatility, signaling the market is waiting for catalysts from macro data.

Short-term technical indicators on the H1 and H4 charts show neutral to slightly bullish momentum, with dynamic support around the daily moving average. The strong resistance in the $5,100-$5,130 zone is the seed of conflict between the buying and selling pressure which is still balanced. Until the CPI and Unemployment Claims data are released, XAU/USD is likely to remain within this narrow corridor.

Also Read: Tokenized Commodities Surpass $6 Billion: What Does It Mean for Crypto Markets?

Fundamental Sentiment: USD Strength & Fed Policy

The latest fundamental data showed that the US dollar index remained strong after the release of stronger-than-expected US labor data, leaving gold under slight pressure towards $5,060 per ounce. When the dollar strengthens, gold priced in USD tends to become more expensive for holders of other currencies, and this limits XAU/USD’s upside in the short term.

Market expectations for the Fed’s interest rates are also a key focus. If the CPI shows inflation remains high, the market tends to maintain a “higher for longer” view on interest rates, which usually pressures gold prices. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected CPI could trigger dovish sentiment and give room for XAU/USD to rebound.

XAU/USD Prediction Scenario Today

Bullish Scenario:
If CPI and Unemployment Claims disappoint the market (inflation falls or jobless claims rise), a potential rebound in gold emerges with the first target in the $5,090-$5,100 area, and if a breakout occurs above the $5,130 resistance, gold has room to reach $5,200-$5,260 as an advanced target.

Bearish Scenario:
If the US economic data is strong beyond expectations (inflation remains high and jobless claims low), the pressure on gold will increase. It could drop below the $5,000 support, with the next downside target at $4,950-$4,920 before a technical rebound opportunity reappears.

Practical Trading Strategies

Short-term traders are advised to wait for confirmation of the CPI and Unemployment Claims releases before taking significant positions. Buy the dip in the $5,000-$5,030 zone with short targets could be a strategy in a dovish scenario. For a breakout approach, waiting for a close above $5,100-$5,130 to enter long may reduce the risk of a false breakout.

Risk management is important in this phase of the data as short-term volatility usually increases, so tight stop losses and position sizing according to risk profile are recommended.

Today’s Outlook Summary

XAU/USD still maintains a sideways to moderately bullish bias ahead of US CPI and Unemployment Claims. Fundamentals such as USD strength and Fed rate expectations include an element of uncertainty, so economic data will be the most important catalyst to determine the near-term direction of gold prices. Market structure technical analysis suggests a possible consolidation first before a breakout in the direction of the dominant trend determined by macro data.

Also Read: 7 Reasons Silver Demand Remains Strong in 2026: Market Deficit & Investment Rising

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Gold-Based Crypto: When Physical Assets Meet Crypto Technology

As blockchain technology develops, gold can now be owned not only in physical form such as jewelry or bars, but also in digital form through gold-based crypto assets.

One of the most popular is Tether Gold (XAUt), a physical gold-backed ERC-20-based stablecoin, where 1 token represents 1 troy ounce of pure gold. The gold is stored in vaults in Switzerland and each token is directly linked to certified gold bullion. The system uses automated algorithms to efficiently manage the allocation of gold and Ethereum addresses.

XAUt tokens are available and traded on various crypto exchanges. XAUt is also an attractive alternative for those looking to hedge against inflation or global economic uncertainty, while remaining within the digital asset ecosystem.

*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Cholifatun Nisak/Radar Tulungagung. XAUUSD Analysis Today: Buy Gold Scenario in 4,778-4,924 Zone, Wait for CPI and Unemployment Claims. Accessed February 13, 2026.