Cardano on the Edge? 4-Year Support Tested, Big Rebound Signal Appears!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Cardano (ADA) price is again testing the macro support zone that has held for the past four years, putting it at a crucial point in the current crypto market cycle. Amid the broad cryptocurrency market weakness, ADA is moving down towards the historical demand area which has always been a strong foothold since 2022.

Current technical conditions indicate extreme selling pressure, but also open up opportunities for significant reversal. The market is now waiting to see if this level will be maintained or if it will break and trigger a new bearish phase.

4-Year Macro Support Tested Again

Technically, Cardano (ADA) is now at a major support area that first formed in 2022 around the range of $0.25 or around Rp4,201 (exchange rate of Rp16,806). This level is the lowest point in the long-term range structure and has successfully resisted selling pressure several times. Each time the price returned to this zone in the last four years, buyers emerged to defend the market structure. This reinforces the relevance of this area as a long-term demand zone.

The return to this level indicates that the market is testing the commitment of buyers at a price that is considered historically “cheap”. As long as ADA is able to hold and close the week above this zone, a large range structure is maintained. In the context of a volatile crypto market, holding this support could be the foundation of the next upward rotation. However, failure to defend this area risks paving the way for a deeper decline.

Value Area Confluence Strengthens Structure

In addition to historical support, the current price zone also coincides with a value low area in the long-term volume structure. This area usually represents the lower limit of the fair price within a trading range. When prices return to this zone after prolonged selling pressure, the market tends to seek a new equilibrium. The confluence of macro support and value area low increases the chances of a price reaction.

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In previous cycles, the confluence of two strong technical factors often resulted in sharp bounces. This concept is widely applicable in crypto and cryptocurrency markets, especially in assets with large liquidity like ADA. If selling momentum begins to weaken in this area, buyers could potentially step in aggressively. However, confirmation is still needed through increased volume and a strong price close.

RSI Extreme Oversold, Momentum Weakens

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the weekly timeframe is now in extremely oversold territory. Historically, this condition on Cardano (ADA) often precedes significant rallies in the following weeks. Oversold on the high timeframe indicates that selling pressure is starting to reach a point of exhaustion. In many cases, this phase is the beginning of a rapid relief rally.

However, being oversold does not guarantee an instant reversal. The price could still move sideways before forming a new bullish structure. However, the combination of four-year macro support and RSI extremes increases the probability of a rebound scenario. If an upside rotation occurs, the initial target is in the middle range area before potentially heading towards the range high in the longer term.

In terms of market structure, maintaining this level will keep Cardano in a large range pattern that has been ongoing since 2022. Conversely, a decisive break below support would change the long-term narrative to bearish. In the context of a still volatile global crypto, this level becomes the next big direction determinant. The price reaction in the next few weeks will be decisive.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Crypto News. Cardano price holds 4-year macro support as oversold conditions intensify. Accessed February 12, 2026
• Featured Image: Bitcoinsensus