5 reasons Bitcoin is at risk of plummeting according to analysts

Jakarta, Pintu News – The cryptocurrency market has been shocked again by the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC), which shows significant signs of weakening at the end of February 2026. After experiencing a long rally in the previous year, the king of digital assets is now stuck below a psychologically important level that has sparked concern among global investors. For those of you with crypto portfolios, understanding the latest technical dynamics is crucial so that you don’t get caught up in the market panic that may be imminent in the near future.

Losing Crucial 200-Week EMA Support

Bitcoin (BTC) just made bittersweet history by closing weekly trading below its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time in the current trending period. This level was previously considered the last bastion of defense that kept the long-term “bullish” structure in the cryptocurrency market. Closing below this line signals that selling pressure is far more dominant than incoming buying interest from large institutions.

Technically, the 200-week EMA line is currently in the price range of $66,000 to $71,000, which is equivalent to Rp1.11 billion to Rp1.19 billion. This loss of support has the potential to change the status of the line from a buffer to a very strong obstacle or resistance for further price increases. You should be prepared for higher volatility as the market searches for a new balance point below that price level.

Also Read: February 2026 Crypto Top 3: Pippin (PIPPIN) Skyrocketed a Fantastic 98.70%!

Potential Death Cross in Late February 2026

In addition to the poor weekly close, technical analysts also warned of the potential appearance of a “Death Cross” pattern on the three-day chart later this month. This pattern occurs when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average, which is often the first sign of a deeper price decline. If this pattern is confirmed, then the chances of a “bearish acceleration” would be very high for Bitcoin (BTC).

Based on historical data for the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, the appearance of this signal is usually followed by an additional price drop of 45% to 52%. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen more than 52% from its highest peak reached in October 2025. This suggests that the crypto market may be entering the final phase of a downward cycle before finally finding a true floor.

Next Support Target at IDR976 Million

With the $65,000 (Rp1.09 billion) level broken, the next downside target is now the “Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range” area at the lower level. This area is in the range of $58,000 to $60,000, which if converted at an exchange rate of Rp16,831 reaches around Rp976 million to Rp1.01 billion. You need to pay close attention to this area because if the level also fails to hold, then a drop to lower numbers is inevitable.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to establish a demand zone in this area, the high selling volume over the past three weeks continues to exert tremendous pressure. To date, there hasn’t been a strong enough buying response to turn things around in both the global and domestic spot markets. Therefore, a defensive strategy might be the wisest choice for those of you looking to secure your capital amidst the current cryptocurrency storm.

The Domino Effect on Ethereum and Ripple

The sharp weakness in Bitcoin (BTC) automatically puts heavy pressure on other digital assets such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP). Ethereum (ETH) is currently observed struggling to maintain the support level at $1,850 or around IDR 31.1 million. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) is also in a fairly vulnerable position with prices slipping near the psychological level of $1.30 or the equivalent of IDR 21,880 per coin.

The very strong correlation between these major assets makes it look like the entire crypto ecosystem is in a very risky consolidation phase. You’ll notice that when the king of digital assets struggles, altcoins will usually respond with a much more aggressive percentage drop. Always make sure you are properly diversified so that the risk of Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuations does not cripple your entire digital financial plan.

Strategies to Deal with “Capital Rotation” in the Digital Marketplace

Amidst this decline, there has been speculation about a “capital rotation” from riskier assets to more stable instruments. Some analysts argue that the current price decline is part of a healthy cyclical cleansing to weed out short-term speculators. You can use this moment to monitor which assets are showing the most resilience when the market is under massive selling pressure.

Institutional investors are reportedly still monitoring certain price levels to make long-term accumulations at cheaper prices. The drop towards the Rp1 billion level could be a golden opportunity for those who have an investment outlook in the next 3 to 5 years. Stick to your original plan and don’t be easily swayed by the temporary daily turmoil in the cryptocurrency world.

Also Read: Top 3 Crypto of the Week: Solana Mobile Seeker (SKR) Leads 32.27% Rally!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• NewsBTC. Bitcoin Positioned For More Pain Following Weekly Close Below This Critical Level. Accessed February 25, 2026.