Is Bitcoin (BTC) Still Cheap Compared to Gold and Poised for a Price Surge?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the spotlight after Jan3 CEO, Samson Mow, said the crypto asset is still undervalued when compared to gold. According to Mow, the current Bitcoin (BTC) price is far below its historical trend against gold market capitalization and global money supply. Meanwhile, the price of gold itself is considered too high after breaking $5,247 per ounce. This condition opens the opportunity for a reversal of the Bitcoin (BTC) price trend in the near future.

Bitcoin (BTC) still lags behind gold, signaling a potential rebound?

Samson Mow highlighted that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around 24% to 66% below its historical trend when compared to the market capitalization of gold or the global money supply. Meanwhile, gold futures for April delivery closed at $5,247.90, and tokenized gold such as PAX Gold (PAXG) even touched $5,404.14.

According to Mow, this overextended condition in gold is a signal that Bitcoin (BTC) has room to catch up. If the historical trend repeats, then a potential surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price could happen in the near future. In addition, Mow also looked at the Z-score metric which measures how far the Bitcoin (BTC) price is from its historical average.

A Z-score below 0 indicates that the price is below average, and currently the Z-score of the Bitcoin (BTC) to gold ratio is around -1.24. Historically, when the Z-score of this ratio drops below -2, Bitcoin (BTC) often experiences massive price rallies. This happened in November 2022 and March 2020, after which Bitcoin (BTC) recorded significant price increases.

Read also: X Now Allows Paid Crypto Promotions, But Still Banned in Europe and the UK

History Proves: Every Sharp Drop, Bitcoin (BTC) Bounces Back

Data from TradingView shows that in November 2022, the Z-score of the Bitcoin (BTC) to gold ratio plummeted to below -3. At that time, the crypto market was rocked by the collapse of the FTX exchange, but in the following 12 months, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) soared by more than 150%. A similar phenomenon occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, where the Z-score fell below -2 and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) touched $3,717.

Within a year, Bitcoin (BTC) managed to skyrocket more than 300% to a record high of $69,000 in November 2021. This historical pattern shows that every time Bitcoin (BTC) experiences significant price pressure, the crypto asset is always able to bounce back and record a huge rally.

This is the basis for optimism for Bitcoin (BTC) supporters that the potential for price increases is still very wide open. With gold already overbought, the opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC) to catch up is getting bigger. Observant investors can take advantage of this momentum to take a position before the next rally occurs.

Also read: World Oil Volatile, Threat of Further Crisis Could Trigger Bitcoin (BTC) ‘Panic Sell’?

Counter Prediction: Another Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Correct to $50,000

On the other hand, not all analysts agree with Samson Mow’s bullish view. A number of crypto market analysts actually predict that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) still has the potential to fall deeper due to investor uncertainty and global geopolitical tension. They consider the current Bitcoin (BTC) price movement to be similar to the bear market pattern in 2022, where the price had dropped more than 50% from its peak.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to the $60,000 level before making a limited recovery to the $66,400 range following developments in the Middle East. The analysts warned that if the selling pressure continues, Bitcoin (BTC) could test the psychological level of $50,000 again. However, history shows that every sharp drop is an opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC) to bounce higher.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Cointelegraph. Bitcoin is ‘undervalued’ compared to gold – Potential rally ahead. Accessed on March 3, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI