5 US Economic Data That Could Move Bitcoin (BTC) This Week

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) price is entering a crucial week with the release of US economic data that has the potential to change expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and trigger crypto market volatility. Bitcoin is trading at around US$66,000 or around Rp1,113,288,000 (exchange rate of Rp16,868). In thin liquidity conditions, small changes in macro data often trigger sharper price movements. Here are five key reports that cryptocurrency market participants are focusing on.

Manufacturing PMI

The release of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI open the week which could set the “tone” for market volatility. Consensus expects numbers around 51.2 for S&P and 52.0-52.3 for ISM, after January’s 52.6. If the PMI rebounds above 52.5, the narrative of a resilient US economy will strengthen. This is likely to delay interest rate cuts and pressure non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin (BTC).

Conversely, a PMI that falls close to 50 indicates a slowdown and could prompt expectations of faster policy easing. Historically, contractionary signals can support liquidity-driven rallies in risky assets, including crypto. The impact can be even greater if the market is already on the defensive. Because they are released early, manufacturing PMIs are often the trigger for rapid repositioning.

ADP Employment Change

Wednesday’s ADP report is an early indicator of labor market conditions before the NFP data. Expectations are around 50,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 in January. A higher number, for example above 60,000-75,000, could reinforce the Fed’s “higher for longer” view. The impact is usually a rise in yields and a strengthening dollar that pressures the cryptocurrency market.

Read also: Pegadaian Gold Price Today, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

If ADP is actually weak, especially below 40,000, the economic cooling narrative strengthens. Expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to increase and can catalyze a short-term recovery in crypto. The market reaction is usually aggressive as ADP is often treated as a “warm-up” before NFP. Therefore, a small deviation from consensus can trigger a spike in volatility.

PMI Services

The S&P and ISM services PMIs are also released on Wednesday and are often more impactful as the services sector dominates the US economy. Consensus is in the range of 52.3-53.5, in line with expansion. If the services data strengthens along with a solid ADP, the market could reduce hopes of a rate cut in the near future. This could potentially hold back the Bitcoin (BTC) rally and pressure altcoins.

Conversely, a weakening services PMI could signal a slowdown in domestic demand. If it coincides with declining labor data, the market may magnify dovish bets. In this scenario, the chances of a “relief rally” in crypto increase. Attention is also drawn to the labor and new orders components which are often early clues to cyclical changes.

Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims are expected to be around 215,000, slightly above the previous release of 212,000. Due to its high-frequency nature, this data often influences market expectations ahead of NFP. Claims remaining low strengthens the argument of a tight labor market, which usually suppresses the chances of a quick rate cut. The implications are likely to be negative for crypto in the short-term.

If claims surge above expectations, the narrative of economic cooling strengthens. The impact could lower yield pressure and provide support for Bitcoin (BTC). Since they are released close to NFP, jobless claims also serve as a “validation” or “refutation” of signals from ADP. The combination of the two often triggers repositioning ahead of Friday.

Also read: Gold-Based Crypto Price Today, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Non-Farm Payrolls

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the most decisive release. Consensus expects 54,000 new jobs, down from 130,000 in January, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% and wages up 0.3% monthly. If NFP is hot, for example above 80,000 with strong wages, yields and the dollar could potentially rise and pressure Bitcoin into the US$62,000-US$59,000 zone or around Rp1,045,816,000-Rp995,212,000. This is the pressure scenario the cryptocurrency market is most wary of.

Conversely, a weak NFP-especially below 40,000 or rising unemployment-could accelerate expectations of a rate cut. In this scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially test the psychological level of US$70,000 or around Rp1,180,760,000. However, rallies will usually be tested at higher resistance areas, especially if liquidity remains thin. Due to its huge impact, NFP often triggers directional movements for the entire crypto market.

Follow us on Google News to stay up to date with the latest in crypto and blockchain technology. Check Bitcoin price, usdt to idr and tokenized nvidia stock price through Pintu Market.

Enjoy an easy and secure crypto trading and crypto gold investment experience by downloading the Pintu crypto app via Play Store or App Store now. Also, experience web trading with advanced trading tools such as pro charting, various order types, and portfolio tracker only at Pintu Pro.

*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Lockridge Okoth/BeInCrypto. 5 Key U.S. Economic Reports Set to Shape Bitcoin Sentiment This Week. Accessed March 3, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI