Market Analysis Mar 20-26: BTC Metrics Giving Bullish Signal & Russia to Accept BTC as Payment for Oil
Update 28 Mar 2022 • Reading Time 5 Minute
Reading Time: 5minutes
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) price movement between 20-26 March
In the past week, BTC has moved in various price ranges, from $40,000 to $45,000. This is an increase of 13%, a healthy and decent increase from the previous week, where the price of BTC fluctuated between $37,500 to $41,750. On the daily chart below, resistance is seen at the 200-day EMA line, with BTC prices hovering between $45,000 and $47,000.
On the weekly chart, we reentered the historical bull market support band (20 weeks MA and 21 weeks EMA). It’s not confirmed yet but following the historical pattern, this would be the right time for a rally to drive the moving averages to bullish direction.
💡 Rally is a term when the price of a crypto asset experiences a significant increase. The term is also used in the stock, securities, and index markets.
blockquote>
On the weekly chart below, we can see the weekly candle broke through the 55 and 21-week EMAs, after 10 weeks of trials and failures. If the price closes above the 21-week EMA, this means for the first time since late November 2021 BTC price is in this position. Historically, in order for BTC to be considered in a bull run, the price had to remain above the 21-week EMA. This is a very encouraging sign.
There is also a hidden bullish divergence that occurs on the weekly chart below. A hidden bullish divergence occurs when the price is making a higher low, but the oscillators (RSI & MACD) are showing a lower low. Hidden RSI divergence is a very strong predictor to predict the continuation or reversal of the trend.
💡 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an indicator to indicate price momentum. The number 0-30 indicates oversold momentum, which means an asset has reached the maximum point of price decline and it will experience a trend reversal. On the other hand, the number 70-100 indicates overbought momentum, which means that the asset price has reached the maximum point of a price increase and will experience a correction as a reversal trend.
Meanwhile, ETH shows strong support at the 55-week EMA and as of March 26 is on the edge of the 21-week EMA. As can be seen in the chart below, the RSI broke through the value of 52. The same thing happened in July 2021, which was followed by a 7-week period of significant rising momentum, with price hikes of up to 135 percent.
💡 ETH broke through the $3,300 price range last week following the successful launch of Ethereum “the Merge” on the Kiln testnet which has the market excited about Ethereum’s switch to a proof-of-stake consensus method.
What else is there to observe from the market in the past week?
Looking at the futures Leverage Ratio, we can see that once again, our ratio is within the upper range of the post-May 21 crash. However, as we can see, the volatility of the leverage ratio is thinning out.
BTC balance on exchanges continues to drop since the 3rd of March. For the first time since April last year, we see the current BTC balance on exchanges at the lowest (in 43 months). It trended back to historic lows as BTC withdrawals resumed.
Market analysis summary
🚀 Bitcoin (BTC) technical indicators give a bullish signal. However, BTC needs to break above the resistance of the 46,000-47,000 US dollar, to ensure BTC is off the bear market and indeed in a reversal. However, until then, it is still necessary to be aware of short-term price fluctuations.
🤩 Meanwhile, the weekly chart of ETH is showing strong support at the 55-week EMA, and as of March 26 is on the edge of the 21-week EMA. While the RSI is at 52. The same thing happened in July 2021, which was then followed by a strong price increase momentum for the following 7 weeks, with a price increase that had touched 135%.
News from the Altcoin world
📈 Axie Infinity (AXS) Price Increases 50%+ Ahead of Origin Launch: Data from TradingView shows that AXS price has increased by 56.5% over the last ten days as an increase in its 24-hour trading volume has lifted AXS to a daily high of $69.82 in 24 March. According to a report from Delphi Digital, Origin is a completely redesigned version of the familiar Axie Battles game.
💰 Terra (LUNA) Plans to Buy US$10 Billion of Bitcoin (BTC): Terra plans to allocate US$10 billion worth of BTC to be used as an underlying asset for the USDTerra stablecoin.
Important news from the crypto world in the past week
⛽ Russia Considers Accepting Bitcoin as Payment for Oil and Gas Exports: Russia’s chairman of the Energy Committee of the State Duma Pavel Zavalny, said on Thursday last week, Russia is open to accepting bitcoin for exports of its natural resources. Zavalny said that countries “friendly” to Russia could be allowed to pay in cryptocurrency or in their local currency. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said he wanted “unfriendly” countries to buy their gas in rubles.
⌚ El Salvador Delays Issuing Bitcoin Bonds: El Salvador postponed its previously planned bitcoin bond issuance last week, as the government decided to wait for more favorable market conditions, said El Salvador Finance Minister Alejandro Zelaya. El Salvador previously planned to issue bitcoin bonds between March 15-20, 2022.
