Will Bitcoin (BTC) experience a sharp decline before surging again? Here’s the analysis!

Jakarta, Pintu News – The opening of November did not bring good news for Bitcoin (BTC) traders. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped by 2.4% and recorded a 6.2% decline in the past week. Recent on-chain data suggests the possibility of a deeper price drop before the next upside phase begins.

NUPL Shows Market Basis Has Not Been Achieved

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric describes the amount of profit or loss held by Bitcoin (BTC) investors. When the NUPL value drops sharply, it signals that the incentive to sell by holders is diminishing, often a sign that a market bottom is forming. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC)’s NUPL is at 0.47, its lowest level since last April 8 when it reached 0.42.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin’s (BTC) NUPL declined in three stages before finally rallying from $76,000 to above $125,000. If this pattern repeats, the next decline towards the 0.42-0.44 range could happen in early to mid-December, which would mark the next accumulation phase before the price recovery begins.

Also Read: 5 Reasons Why Analysts Think November Could Be the Most Bullish Month for XRP (XRP)

The Trigger May Be a Bearish Crossover

A bearish crossover occurs when a short-term exponential moving average, such as the 50-day EMA, crosses below a long-term moving average, such as the 100-day EMA. On the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC), this crossover is forming. This is an important indicator as it shows that short-term sellers are starting to dominate the market over long-term holders.

This reflects a shift in control: traders who bought recently start to exit, while long-term investors hesitate to buy until clear market strength returns. This configuration often triggers panic-induced selling, which forces weak holders out of the market before a new accumulation phase begins.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch Out For

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is around $106,900, slightly above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $106,300, which acted as short-term support in October. If this level is broken, the next target is near $103,500. This would result in a drop of around 3%-4% and would lower the NUPL further.

However, a strong daily close above $111,400 will turn the short-term structure bullish again. This level has been acting as resistance since October 30. Surpassing it would negate the bearish crossover effect and pave the way towards the $113,300 zone. However, a significant rise in Bitcoin (BTC) prices would also negate the theory of base formation based on NUPL, at least for now.

Conclusion

Looking at the NUPL data and the ongoing bearish crossover formation, investors and traders should prepare for a possible deeper drop in Bitcoin (BTC) price before the next rally phase. Monitoring key levels and changes in market indicators will be crucial in determining the right time to buy or sell.

Also Read: Can You Live Only on Crypto? Here are 3 Sources of Income & Challenges You Need to Know About

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Price Rally: Bearish Cross Warning. Accessed on November 5, 2025